NEM Overview: Sunday 7 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM sit in a narrow $67–$88/MWh band as of 06:30 AEST, with Tasmania ($87.87/MWh, 1,085 MW demand) and Queensland ($87.73/MWh, 6,724 MW) at the top of the range and South Australia the cheapest at $67.35/MWh (1,342 MW). The $20.52/MWh SA-to-QLD spread is notable given SA is exporting 224 MW to Victoria via the Heywood interconnector (V-SA at its import limit of -224 MW) while Victoria is pushing 432 MW north into NSW. Western Australia sits well clear of the eastern states at $133.59/MWh. NEM-wide grid stress scores 83.6/100, reflecting tight reserve conditions rather than high demand — total eastern states load of ~21,826 MW is consistent with a cool June morning with temperatures ranging from 8–13°C across regions.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 38.3%. SA is running 91.9% renewable this interval, powered almost entirely by 1,307 MW of wind against a 1,342 MW load, with 120 MW of gas CCGT and 51 MW of battery rounding out local supply. Tasmania is at 100% renewable with 1,046 MW hydro and 85 MW wind. Queensland's wind fleet is contributing 1,214 MW, though black coal at 4,712 MW dominates that region's 25.7% renewable share. In Victoria, 713 MW of wind accounts for 13.6% of a dispatch mix led by 4,759 MW of brown coal, producing the NEM's highest carbon intensity at 1.055 tCO2/MWh. NSW sits at 0.665 tCO2/MWh with black coal running 5,486 MW alongside 877 MW hydro and 699 MW wind.

The critical item for today's trading is an active LOR2 reserve notice for South Australia on Wednesday 10 June, updated this morning (06:05 AEST). AEMO's ST PASA now forecasts the shortfall window as 08:30–17:00 on 10 June, with minimum available capacity of 384 MW against a reserve requirement of 571 MW — a 187 MW gap. AEMO is seeking a market response and has not yet set an intervention trigger time. Traders with flexible capacity or demand response available in SA or on the Heywood and Project EnergyConnect interconnectors should be watching closely. The V-SA interconnector is already at its binding import limit this interval, which limits the headroom for interstate support unless that constraint relaxes ahead of Wednesday.

Today's outlook is broadly stable. Solar potential is negligible across all regions at this hour and remains modest through the day given June insolation. SA's clear skies forecast (8% cloud cover today) will support afternoon solar, easing the reserve picture slightly mid-afternoon before evening demand ramps. Wind forecasts are firm in SA (avg potential 4.6 today) and strengthen materially in Victoria tomorrow (avg 8.7) and Wednesday (11.4), which is directly relevant to the LOR2 situation. QLD and NSW wind potential is lighter over the next 24–48 hours. Morning peak pricing pressure is most likely in QLD and TAS given their current price levels and the absence of solar at this hour.