Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 7 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $74.05/MWh at 6:30 AEST with demand at 5,155 MW — a marked step down from the morning peak, which saw demand climb to 6,653 MW by 7:55 AEST with prices holding consistently in the $97–$110/MWh band. The price-demand relationship across today has been pronounced: every interval above ~6,000 MW correlated with prices above $90/MWh, while the afternoon trough between 4,550–4,750 MW (16:00–18:00 AEST) compressed prices into the $55–$70/MWh range. The current 5,155 MW reading reflects the early stages of a typical winter evening ramp, and prices are already responding — rising from a low of $55.42/MWh at 5:00 AEST through to the current $74.05/MWh as demand climbs back toward the 5,500–5,600 MW range that drove $90–$100+/MWh pricing earlier in the morning.

Forecast RRPs for the 7:00 and 7:30 AEST half-hours (the next two trading intervals) are converging around $75–$76/MWh, consistent with current demand trajectory. As demand pushes toward the evening peak — likely between 17:00 and 19:30 AEST local time based on today's pattern — prices can be expected to test the $80–$110/MWh range again. The generation mix is providing limited flexibility at this point: brown coal is carrying 4,759 MW, wind is contributing 713 MW, and solar has dropped to zero with the sun set. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero output, meaning any additional evening demand will need to be met by dispatching higher-cost capacity or drawing on interconnector flows.

Overnight load windows signal a dramatic price collapse from around 09:00 AEST onward, with forecast prices dropping into the $10–$20/MWh range through to midnight, then turning negative from approximately 11:00–15:30 AEST (01:00–05:30 UTC on 8 June). This reflects the structural overnight demand trough — typically sub-4,500 MW — against a baseload brown coal floor that cannot rapidly de-commit. For demand-side participants and flexible loads, the window from 09:00 AEST through to the morning ramp represents the clearest arbitrage opportunity of the day, with forecast prices reaching as low as -$11.95/MWh at the 13:30 AEST half-hour.

One network notice remains relevant to VIC pricing context: the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line has returned to service (as of 5 June), removing constraint set V-KOWE and restoring full inter-regional transfer capacity on that corridor. This reduces the risk of localised constraint-driven price spikes that could have amplified the evening demand ramp. The SA LOR2 forecast for 10 June (08:30–17:00 AEST) does not directly affect Victoria's pricing today but is worth monitoring for potential interconnector flow impacts across Heywood as the week progresses.