Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 6 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at **$110.50/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 4,917 MW — well off the morning peak of 6,894 MW recorded around 17:50 AEST. That peak-hour surge drove sustained prices above $110/MWh for extended intervals between 16:00 and 18:30 AEST, with a brief high of $116.13/MWh at 17:00 AEST. The 24-hour volume-weighted average across the price history sits in the mid-to-high $80s/MWh, reflecting a day that spent the bulk of daylight and shoulder hours anchored between $80–$115/MWh — a notably elevated band for a Sunday, consistent with firm winter heating demand. Current temperature in Melbourne is 8.9°C with a heating demand index of 9.1 and near-zero cloud cover, which suppresses rooftop solar output entirely at this hour.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at **4,741.66 MW**, with wind contributing **671.83 MW**, hydro **60.12 MW**, and battery dispatch at a negligible **0.29 MW**. Gas CCGT, gas OCGT, and solar are all at zero output. Total renewable contribution sits at **13.38%** — the lowest point in today's data, down sharply from a high of around 29% recorded in the early hours of the morning when overnight wind output was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity is **1.0568 tCO2/MWh**, elevated against the 0.87–0.93 tCO2/MWh range seen during the 01:00–10:00 AEST window when wind penetration was higher. Intensity has been climbing since mid-afternoon as demand recovered and wind output moderated.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) show a range of **$83.78–$110.50/MWh** across successive runs, with the most recent forecast anchored at the cap of $110.50/MWh. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is similarly forecast at $100.61–$110.50/MWh. Load window data points to meaningful price relief emerging from 09:30 AEST onward, with forecast prices for the 10:00–11:30 AEST window (00:00–01:30 UTC) dropping to the low-to-mid $20s and briefly below $1/MWh in some predispatch runs — consistent with overnight demand trough and wind generation recovering. The near-term price outlook therefore remains firm through the morning peak before easing substantially by mid-morning.

The one active market notice of direct relevance to Victoria is the **inter-regional transfer notice (144204)** confirming the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line returned to service at 19:20 AEST on 5 June, with constraint set V-KOWE revoked. This restores full transfer capability on that corridor and is now resolved. No active VIC-specific constraint sets or generation directions are in place. The Heywood interconnector constraint notice (144186) referencing a test limit increase from 550 MW to 600 MW on the SA–Vic flow direction remains active and is relevant to any cross-border flows on