Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 6 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $87.24/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 964 MW — a notable step down from the morning peak of around 1,278 MW recorded near 17:35 AEST and well below the overnight demand that held above 1,100 MW through the evening. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices oscillated between a low of $50.14/MWh in the early hours and a sharp morning spike to $150.04/MWh at 16:00 AEST, before settling into the current $87.24/MWh band that has been stable since approximately 05:30 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows two clear regimes: a volatile overnight window from roughly 12:30–16:00 AEST where dispatch prices repeatedly touched $100–$114/MWh, and a calmer midday trough where prices compressed to the low $50s. The current price reflects a routine evening ramp.

Generation at the latest interval comprises hydro at 632.69 MW and wind at 464.48 MW, with gas OCGT offline at 0 MW. Combined output of 1,097 MW exceeds the current 964 MW demand figure, consistent with Tasmania exporting across Basslink to Victoria — a typical operating posture when wind generation is strong. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has been sustained continuously since approximately 23:30 AEST last night after a brief period of trace gas contribution (intensity reaching 0.033 tCO2/MWh) during the morning demand peak. Weather conditions today are overcast with 97% cloud cover, 12.7°C and wind speed at 14.1 km/h — consistent with the solid wind output currently on the system. The daily outlook shows average wind potential of 6.2 and near-total cloud cover (86%), so wind is expected to remain the variable contributor through the day while solar stays negligible.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two hours point to prices consolidating in the $87.22–$87.24/MWh range through to approximately 08:00 AEST, then stepping up toward $88–$98/MWh across the 07:00–08:30 AEST window as the morning demand ramp lifts. Forecasts for the 09:00–10:30 AEST period show a wider spread with some runs reaching $97–$103/MWh, reflecting uncertainty around how quickly demand builds on a winter Sunday morning. The $80.20/MWh floor seen repeatedly in today's dispatch record corresponds to the Basslink interconnector floor price — a signal that interconnector flows are actively pricing at the import/export boundary constraint during softer demand intervals.

There are no active AEMO market notices directly affecting Tasmania. The most relevant nearby notice is the inter-regional transfer variation for the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line in Victoria (constraint set V-KOWE), which returned to service at 19:20 AEST on 5 June — this restores full VIC transfer capacity and is neutral-to-supportive for TAS export flows via Basslink. Traders should watch the 07:00–09:30 AEST predispatch window where forecast price uncertainty is widest; if wind output holds at current levels and Basslink export continues, downward price pressure on