Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 6 June 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at $124.33/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,373 MW. That current price is materially elevated relative to the overnight trough — dispatch intervals dipped as low as $15.89/MWh in the early hours (around 02:50 AEST) before climbing sharply through the morning peak, where prices repeatedly touched $138–$203/MWh between 16:00 and 20:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile reflects a classic winter weekday pattern: deep overnight lows driven by low demand and relatively high wind output, followed by a sustained evening elevation. The current $124.33/MWh reading represents a moderation from that evening peak, consistent with demand easing from its 1,842 MW intraday high back toward the 1,370 MW range.

The current generation mix is gas-heavy, with GAS_OCGT contributing 351.67 MW and GAS_CCGT adding 254.26 MW — combined gas output of 605.93 MW against total metered generation of approximately 740 MW. Wind is producing 93.24 MW and battery storage is dispatching 41 MW, while solar output is zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 18.14% at this interval, well below the overnight high of 71.55% recorded around 02:00–02:30 AEST when wind was substantially stronger and demand was at its minimum. Carbon intensity stands at 0.4772 tCO2/MWh, up significantly from the 0.1661–0.1730 tCO2/MWh range seen during peak wind penetration overnight. Today's weather shows clear skies (0% cloud cover) and low wind speed of 8 km/h at 9.9°C, with the daily outlook suggesting average solar potential of 16.4 and low average wind potential of 0.6 — meaning solar will contribute through midday hours but wind support is expected to remain limited across the day.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) point to prices in the $103–$126/MWh range, with the most recent forecast run (20:01 UTC) targeting $125.79/MWh at 21:00 UTC and $126.38/MWh at 21:30 UTC. Earlier in the forecast horizon, runs from 18:00–18:30 UTC were pricing the 21:00 interval as low as $101–$103/MWh, but the trajectory has firmed over the past two hours as demand has held up. Further out, load window forecasts show prices softening toward $50–$75/MWh through the 09:30–10:30 AEST period (23:30–00:30 UTC) and dropping toward $1–$25/MWh between approximately 11:00 AEST and 13:30 AEST as solar generation increases and Sunday demand stays low — consistent with the clear-sky forecast and typical weekend midday suppression.

One market notice of direct SA relevance remains active: a contingency reclassification covering the Para–Templers West and Magill–Torrens Island A 275 kV lines in SA (Notice 144179, issued 01 June), which AEMO reclassified as a credible