Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 6 June 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $105.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from overnight lows that briefly touched negative territory (reaching -$2.50/MWh around 14:10–14:25 AEST) and sub-$6/MWh pricing across most of the 10:00–14:00 AEST window. The morning ramp has been steep and sustained: prices crossed $80/MWh around 15:50 AEST and have held above $100/MWh since 16:15 AEST, with intraday peaks hitting $118.74/MWh at 21:30 AEST and $115.73/MWh twice during the 17:00 and 22:15 AEST intervals. Total demand sits at 5,996 MW, well below the intraday peak of 7,419 MW recorded around 17:55 AEST, and is tracking upward again as Queensland moves into the evening demand window.
Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,144 MW (approximately 76% of total output), with wind contributing 815 MW (12%), gas OCGT at 563 MW (8%), hydro at 116 MW (2%), battery at 105 MW (2%), and solar at just 0.25 MW — consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 15.37%, down markedly from an overnight high above 52% recorded around 09:30–09:45 AEST when wind was carrying a larger share of a much lower demand profile. Carbon intensity is currently 0.7256 tCO2/MWh, elevated relative to the overnight trough of 0.4132 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the shift back to coal-dominated despatch as demand and prices rose through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining firm into the early hours of Sunday morning. The 06:01 AEST predispatch run has the 07:00 AEST half-hour target at $105.68/MWh, and the 07:30 AEST target at $104.40/MWh, consistent with the pattern of the last several forecast runs which have been revising the evening outlook upward from earlier estimates in the $87–$90/MWh range. The load window data indicates a meaningful price relief is expected from around 08:30 AEST Sunday onward, with forecast prices falling into the $40–$75/MWh range through the overnight trough and returning toward the $60–$80/MWh band ahead of the Sunday morning ramp, which is forecast to push back toward the $75–$80/MWh range by approximately 16:30 AEST Sunday.
On market notices, the two active QLD1 non-conformance notices both relate to unit WOOLGSF1 on 5 June, with deviations of 69 MW and 7 MW across separate intervals — these are historical and carry no live operational impact. No active constraint sets are presently binding on the QLD–NSW interconnector relevant to today's despatch. Weather conditions are supportive of moderate solar output today (max temp 21°C, 24% average cloud cover, solar potential index 15.6) which should help suppress midday prices, but wind potential is low (index 1.0) and unlikely to provide meaningful afternoon relief to the generation mix. Heating demand at 6