Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 6 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $110.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 4,917 MW — a level that, on its own, would typically clear well below this price. The disconnect between the relatively modest demand figure and the elevated price reflects the timing: this is the overnight-to-morning transition period and the market is pricing in the morning ramp that began around 05:30 AEST. The day's demand trajectory is already apparent in the history: Victoria touched a trough of roughly 4,600–4,700 MW through the early evening (17:00–19:00 AEST), then began climbing from around 06:00 AEST (20:00 UTC) as heating loads activated, with prices accelerating sharply from $72–80/MWh into the $110.50/MWh cap-adjacent range over just 30 minutes. Brown coal is carrying 4,742 MW and wind 672 MW; with solar contributing zero in pre-dawn conditions and gas offline, the supply stack has limited flexible headroom above baseload output, which amplifies price sensitivity to each incremental MW of demand growth during the ramp.

The day's peak demand corridor ran from approximately 17:00 AEST (06:00–08:00 UTC) through to around 18:00 AEST (07:00–08:00 UTC yesterday), where demand reached 6,835–6,894 MW with prices sustained between $97–$116/MWh across most intervals. That peak-to-current demand spread of roughly 1,900 MW illustrates the magnitude of Victoria's winter morning and evening peaks relative to the overnight base. Prices tracked demand closely during the morning ramp — from $38/MWh at 4,975 MW (03:35 AEST) to $116/MWh at 6,366 MW by 17:00 AEST — implying a price sensitivity of approximately $12–15/MWh per additional 200 MW of demand once the stack moves past brown coal baseload capacity. The mid-afternoon pullback to the low-to-mid $80s/MWh as demand eased below 5,000 MW confirms this relationship holds symmetrically on the way down.

Today's outlook, based on the current 06:30 AEST position and forward forecasts, points to prices remaining in the $80–$110/MWh range through the morning ramp. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) and 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) intervals are centred at $110.50/MWh across the most recent runs, with earlier forecasts having consistently underestimated the outturn — the 02:30 AEST forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval was just $80.50/MWh, revised progressively to cap-adjacent levels as demand signals firmed. With today's maximum temperature forecast at 16.8°C and heating demand elevated at 9.1°C equivalent at 06:30 AEST, the morning demand build is not yet complete. Demand is likely to add another 1,000–1,500 MW over the next 90 minutes before peaking, sustaining price pressure in the $97–$115/MWh band through approximately 09:00–10:00 AEST before the mid-morning softening observed in today's prior peak cycle reasserts.

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