Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 5 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $77.11/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,090 MW — well below the morning peak of around 7,590 MW recorded near 18:35 AEST on the evening ramp. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices were most elevated through the 08:00–11:00 AEST window (consistently $85–$113/MWh as demand climbed toward its daily peak) before falling sharply through the afternoon into the $12–$50/MWh range as demand softened. The current $77.11/MWh reading reflects the beginning of the early-morning demand rebuild as heating load lifts in cool winter conditions — the temperature sits at 11.1°C with a heating demand index of 6.9.

The generation mix at the most recent interval (06:30 AEST) is dominated by brown coal at 4,695 MW, with wind contributing 1,378 MW, battery dispatch at 255 MW, and hydro at 53 MW. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) and solar are each at zero. Total identified generation across these fuel types sits around 6,380 MW, consistent with overnight baseload and early-morning draw. Renewables are contributing 26.4% of the mix at this interval, down from highs of around 37–39% seen during the overnight period when brown coal output was relatively lower against wind. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.8976 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to overnight readings that bottomed near 0.76 tCO2/MWh during mid-evening when wind penetration was strongest.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices rising through the coming trading periods. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast around $78–$79/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST period forecast in the $78–$83/MWh range across the most recent predispatch runs. Further out this morning, load window forecasts suggest prices ease back substantially from roughly 08:30 AEST onwards, with the 09:00–10:30 AEST windows forecast in the $10–$37/MWh range — consistent with typical Saturday off-peak demand patterns and no solar uplift given 47% average cloud cover forecast for today. Prices are then expected to lift again from roughly 12:00 AEST as solar potential averages 4.1 across the day but cloud cover limits the magnitude of any midday suppression.

The one VIC-relevant active market notice of note is the inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144204) regarding the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line, which was on planned outage from 25 May and returned to service at 19:20 AEST on 5 June — constraint set V-KOWE has been revoked and the line is back in service, removing a previous transfer limit variation on the VIC north boundary. The Heywood interconnector constraints notice (MN 144186) regarding SA-to-VIC test limit adjustments to 600 MW remains active and is relevant to any southward SA flows through Heywood today. No directions or non-conformance notices are currently active for VIC units.