Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 5 June 2026
The spot price sits at $80.20/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 995 MW — a notably light Saturday load. The price has been largely range-bound between $80.18 and $87.22/MWh across the past 24 hours, with the dominant floor price of $80.18/MWh holding for the bulk of intervals. The single intraday spike to $153.95/MWh occurred at 17:45 AEST on Friday and resolved within one interval, indicating a brief dispatch constraint rather than sustained supply tightness. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh, consistent with current pricing.
Hydro is contributing 885.6 MW and wind 234.4 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total scheduled generation of approximately 1,120 MW against sub-1,000 MW demand points to Tasmania operating with export headroom across Basslink into Victoria. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — hydro and wind are covering the entire local load, and the OCGT fleet is fully offline. This profile has been unbroken across every recorded half-hour interval in the carbon history dataset, reflecting Tasmania's typical winter generation posture when hydro storages are well-supported.
Predispatch forecasts are uniform at $80.20/MWh through to the early hours of 6 June AEST, with a mild step-up toward $87.22–$87.24/MWh forecast from approximately 17:30 AEST onwards as the evening demand ramp approaches. Overnight intervals from 12:30 AEST Saturday show forecast prices softening slightly to the low-to-mid $70s/MWh in some runs — notably a floor near $67.85–$68.64/MWh in the 13:30–14:00 AEST window — before recovering to the $79–$80/MWh range into Sunday morning. This pattern suggests modest overnight surplus conditions with pricing tracking Basslink export dynamics.
No market notices directly affect Tasmania today. The most operationally relevant active notice is the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line in VIC returning to service at 19:20 AEST on 5 June, revoking constraint set V-KOWE — this marginally improves VIC import capacity and could influence Basslink flow economics through the day. All other active notices relate to QLD and NSW non-conformances, VIC and NSW contingency reclassifications, and NEM-wide market systems activities; none impose binding constraints on TAS1. Weather conditions — 6.6°C with low wind speeds and 34% cloud cover — are consistent with a moderate heating demand day (11.4 units), keeping residential load steady but below winter peak levels.