Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 5 June 2026

The SA1 spot price sits at $101.95/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, demand at 1,394 MW — a marked step-down from overnight peaks of $142.66/MWh (18:00 AEST) and a sustained run above $100/MWh through most of the business day. The 24-hour price history shows a volatile session: prices dipped to a low of $36.15/MWh briefly at 23:55 AEST before rebounding, with the market spending the bulk of the evening and early morning anchored between $95–$123/MWh. The current generation mix totals approximately 811 MW of dispatched plant: gas OCGT leads at 364 MW, wind contributes 244 MW, gas CCGT adds 202 MW, and battery storage is providing a nominal 1.3 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and the current 98% cloud cover at 10.4°C.

Renewable penetration sits at 30.26% in the latest interval, carbon intensity at 0.4135 tCO2/MWh — both deteriorating sharply from overnight lows when wind was carrying 60–75% of load and intensity dropped as low as 0.1441 tCO2/MWh around 12:00–13:00 AEST. That overnight window represented materially cleaner dispatch conditions; the step-up in carbon intensity since 06:00 AEST reflects rising demand and increased gas-fired output displacing wind at the margin. With overcast skies forecast across 6 June (58% average cloud cover, max 15.2°C, low wind potential rated 1.0), solar recovery today will be modest and wind output is not expected to compensate meaningfully for the absence of overnight-style conditions.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two intervals point to a softening from current levels: the 07:00 AEST half-hour is tipped at ~$95.57/MWh (most recent forecast run), with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at approximately $80–88/MWh across multiple runs, suggesting some easing through the early morning Saturday period as overnight load profiles take hold. The load window data supports this trajectory, with prices forecast to fall into the $55–$70/MWh band through 09:00–11:30 AEST and sub-$50/MWh windows appearing in the 10:00–12:00 AEST range — consistent with a Saturday demand trough. Price spikes back toward $86–$88/MWh are anticipated from 16:30 AEST onward as the evening ramp commences.

The one SA-relevant active market notice is the Heywood interconnector constraint test (Notice 144186), under which AEMO lifted the SA-to-VIC transfer test limit from 550 MW to 600 MW for internetwork testing as part of Project EnergyConnect Stage 1 and HIC capacity release work. The constraint set I-SV_HEY_600_TEST remains active; this marginally alters the import/export ceiling on Heywood and could influence SA prices if interconnector flows shift materially during the day. There is also an older active notice (144179) relating to a contingency reclassification on the Para–Templers West and Magill–Torrens Island A 275 kV lines in SA due to a severe weather