Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 5 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $84.50/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,176 MW. Overnight prices traced a pronounced trough, dropping to sub-zero territory between roughly 12:00 and 15:30 AEST — with a floor of -$4.91/MWh around 14:50 AEST — before recovering sharply through the morning ramp to a session high of $97.96/MWh at 17:00 AEST. The current price is broadly in line with the evening-period trading range of $73–$87/MWh seen across the past several hours, representing a firm but stable thermal dispatch window. The 24-hour price average, spanning the deep overnight trough through the morning peak, sits around $45–$50/MWh, meaning the current interval is running well above that average as thermal units carry the evening load.

The generation mix at the 06:30 AEST trading interval shows black coal at 4,941.86 MW, wind at 1,210.60 MW, battery discharging at 353.31 MW, hydro at 181.26 MW, gas OCGT at 177.29 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.11 MW — consistent with a winter pre-dawn dispatch profile. Total reported output is approximately 6,865 MW across those fuel types. Renewables — wind, hydro, and the minimal solar — are contributing approximately 25.4% of generation, per the latest carbon intensity record, down sharply from the overnight peak of 55% recorded around 09:30 AEST when lower thermal commitment and wind generation pushed the mix toward non-emitting sources. Battery dispatch is notable at 353 MW, indicating stored energy is being deployed into the morning demand recovery. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6503 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.3899 tCO2/MWh, reflecting higher coal dispatch as demand rebuilds from the 4,000 MW overnight floor toward the 6,000+ MW morning level.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) are clustered tightly in the $80.83–$85.40/MWh range across all recent forecast runs, with the most recent prints at $84.50/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour forecasts are similarly anchored at $85.40/MWh, with a couple of earlier runs reaching $86.70/MWh. This consensus indicates no material price relief or escalation is anticipated through the early morning — participants should expect prices to remain in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh through at least the next two trading periods. Load windows from predispatch indicate prices will ease significantly from approximately 08:30 AEST onward as overnight low-demand conditions return, with forecast prices from 09:00 AEST dropping to the $25–$47/MWh range and sub-$10/MWh values reappearing from around 09:30 AEST as the grid moves into the second overnight trough consistent with Saturday demand patterns. Weather conditions are supportive of this outlook: current temperature is 9.8°C with clear skies and low wind (11.8 km/h), meaning today's solar potential (rated 25.2 average) will provide a modest midday contribution once the sun