NEM Overview: Friday 5 June 2026

Spot prices are moderate across the NEM at 06:25 AEST, with SA leading at $101.95/MWh and WA the highest reported region at $124.83/MWh. NSW sits at $92.72/MWh on demand of 7,743 MW, QLD at $84.50/MWh on 6,176 MW, TAS at $80.20/MWh, and VIC the cheapest mainland region at $77.11/MWh on 5,090 MW. The $24.84/MWh NSW-VIC spread is reflected in interconnector flows: VIC1-NSW1 is exporting 933 MW northward, running close to its 958 MW export limit. V-SA is also binding at its 491 MW export limit, pushing power from VIC into SA and contributing to SA's price premium. The grid stress score of 63.7 and price stability score of 57.3 are consistent with constrained interconnector conditions on a winter evening.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 43%, with the carbon intensity score at 52.1 and a NEM-wide average of approximately 0.70–0.90 tCO2/MWh varying by region. TAS is 100% renewable at 06:25 AEST, running 886 MW of hydro and 234 MW of wind against demand of 995 MW. VIC's 1,378 MW of wind alongside 255 MW of battery gives it 26% renewable penetration despite 4,695 MW of brown coal as its dominant fuel. QLD carries 1,211 MW of wind and 353 MW of battery dispatch against a 4,942 MW black coal base, sitting at 25% renewable. NSW is lowest at 17% renewable, with 5,338 MW of black coal dominating against 241 MW of wind, 807 MW of hydro, and 65 MW of battery. SA's renewable share is 30%, with 244 MW of wind competing against 566 MW of combined gas (OCGT 364 MW, CCGT 202 MW) at current near-zero solar output.

Two interconnector binds are the key operational story this morning. V-SA is at its export ceiling of 491 MW and V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) is also binding at 84 MW — together these flows are supporting SA supply and underpinning SA's price premium relative to VIC. The Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line (VIC) returned to service at 19:20 AEST last night after a planned outage running since 25 May, with constraint set V-KOWE revoked — this restores full transfer capability on that corridor ahead of today's trading. Directlink No. 3 Leg (NSW-QLD) also returned to service yesterday, revoking N-MBTE_1. The NSW1-QLD1 interconnector is currently flowing 621 MW south into NSW, well within its import limit of 1,168 MW.

Today's outlook is shaped by winter heating demand across all regions, with temperatures ranging from 6.6°C in TAS to 9.8°C in QLD at present. Solar generation is negligible overnight and will provide only modest support through daylight hours — NSW forecast solar potential today is 19.4, the strongest of all regions, while VIC and SA are softer. Wind