Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 4 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $80.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, holding at a level that has been broadly range-bound throughout the trading day. Looking across the 24-hour price history, the band has oscillated between $80.10/MWh and a morning peak of $106.58/MWh (around 15:55 AEST), with brief excursions to $101.01/MWh and $103.78/MWh during the early-morning ramp. Outside those spikes, the price has largely settled in a tight corridor around $80.18–$87.24/MWh, with the current interval representing the lower end of that range. Demand sits at 1,171 MW and is climbing from the mid-afternoon trough of approximately 897 MW, consistent with a typical winter evening ramp as heating loads build heading into the 17:00–20:00 AEST peak window.
The generation mix is entirely zero-emission at this interval. Hydro is contributing 1,061 MW and wind 234 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at 0 MW. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in today's dataset. Current conditions are clear and cold at 4.7°C with minimal wind (5.9 km/h) and near-zero cloud cover (7%), meaning wind output is modest for this time and solar potential is zero, as expected in winter overnight hours. Today's outlook shows average cloud cover of 63% and moderate wind potential, with temperatures ranging 4–13°C — a profile that will sustain solid heating demand through to the weekend.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting from the current $80.18/MWh to $87.20/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC), with the 07:30 AEST interval also forecast at $87.22/MWh. This aligns with the regular evening demand peak pattern observed across today's price history, where the $87/MWh band has repeatedly been tested during high-demand intervals. The predispatch signal is consistent and has been stable across multiple forecast runs, suggesting no material supply-side surprises are anticipated for the next trading period. Traders should note the evening ramp is well-signalled; the $87/MWh ceiling has historically held without escalation to triple-digit territory outside of the early-morning outliers.
No market notices directly affecting Tasmania are active. The notices in the dataset relate to contingency reclassifications in NSW1 (Bayswater–Mt Piper 500kV lines, lightning-related, now cancelled) and VIC1 (Eildon–Mt Beauty 220kV lines, also resolved), plus historical SA intervention and settlement residue events — none of which carry current material implications for the Basslink corridor or Tasmanian dispatch. Grid stress is elevated at 81.3 on the gridIQ scoring index, which warrants monitoring as demand continues its evening climb, particularly if any unplanned Basslink constraint were to emerge. For now, the supply position appears comfortable with no active FCAS or interconnector notices relevant to TAS1.