Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 4 June 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $83.96/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,516 MW — a marked step up from the extended run of negative prices that characterised the overnight period from roughly 21:00 to 05:00 AEST, where prices repeatedly touched -$3 to -$20/MWh on surplus wind generation. The price trajectory through the day has been progressive: a morning peak corridor of $60–$70/MWh from around 19:00–20:30 AEST (UTC+1 offset applied), climbing further into the current $83–$88/MWh band as the post-sunset evening demand ramp consolidates. The 24-hour price profile shows a wide intra-day spread, with the overnight trough average well below zero and the current settlement tracking near the day's upper range.

The current generation mix at 06:30 AEST is wind 596.55 MW, gas OCGT 269.76 MW, gas CCGT 177.19 MW, battery discharge 75.96 MW, and solar 0 MW — consistent with a winter evening, post-sunset profile. Wind is contributing the dominant share of local output. Total gas-fired generation sits at 446.95 MW, with both OCGT and CCGT units running to firm demand as wind variability requires. Carbon intensity at the latest interval is 0.2342 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 60.07% — a significant decline from the overnight high of ~95.7% renewable penetration recorded around 22:30–23:30 AEST when wind generation was high and demand was lower. The carbon intensity trend through the day has risen steadily from a low of ~0.022 tCO2/MWh overnight to the current reading as gas dispatch has increased proportionally with demand.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval are clustering in the $71–$87/MWh band across recent forecast runs, with the most recent prints at $85.48/MWh — suggesting prices hold broadly around current levels through the next half-hour. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) forecasts show a slightly wider range of $72–$103/MWh depending on the forecast vintage, with later runs settling in the $72–$88/MWh corridor. The 08:00 AEST forecasts (22:00 UTC) escalate more noticeably, with several runs printing $88–$101/MWh, indicating potential for a further uplift as the evening demand peak extends. Beyond 09:00 AEST, forecast prices ease back toward $20–$60/MWh through the early hours as demand softens and wind output is expected to remain available. Today's weather outlook shows mild conditions — a max of 15.3°C, 64% cloud cover overnight, and wind potential rated at 2.3 — consistent with moderate wind output continuing into tomorrow morning.

One active market notice of direct SA relevance is AEMO Notice 144179, which reclassifies the Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275kV lines in SA as a credible contingency event due to severe weather, effective from 10:00 on 1 June 2026 until further notice — this remains active and constrains system normal operating margins on those corridors. A Heywood