Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 4 June 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $80.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,830 MW. The current price reflects a typical winter morning peak ramp — the overnight trough was dramatic, with prices falling to near-zero and briefly negative between roughly 11:30 AEST and 14:30 AEST (UTC 01:30–04:30), touching -$68.68/MWh at one point. Prices climbed steadily through the pre-dawn hours, breaching $80/MWh from around 17:00 AEST and holding there through the current interval. The 24-hour average across the price history sits in the low-to-mid $50s/MWh, meaning the current price sits materially above that average as the morning peak builds.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by black coal at 4,855 MW, followed by wind at 1,384 MW, battery storage discharging at 630 MW, hydro at 302 MW, gas OCGT at 165 MW, and solar contributing a negligible 0.1 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing 31.6% of output at this interval, up from around 25–27% during the mid-afternoon and evening periods where coal dominated more heavily. Wind is the primary driver of that renewable share today; solar will add output as daylight builds but the weather outlook shows low wind potential later in the day (avg 9.3 km/h), which may see wind's contribution ease.

Carbon intensity sits at 0.5969 tCO2/MWh, improved from the 0.64–0.65 tCO2/MWh range seen through mid-afternoon and evening intervals, and well below the overnight low of approximately 0.43 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration peaked above 50% during the early hours. Expect intensity to tick up modestly through the morning as demand rises and coal output increases to meet the peak. Today's weather shows clear skies (0% cloud cover currently, 9% average for the day), which should support a reasonable solar contribution from mid-morning, applying modest downward pressure on intensity and prices in the 10:00–14:00 AEST window.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) target are clustering tightly around $80–$82/MWh, having converged from higher estimates earlier in the cycle — a 04:30 AEST forecast had that interval at $90.40/MWh before settling back. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast around $77–$79/MWh, suggesting the peak may already be close to its high-water mark for the morning. The most relevant active market notice for Queensland is the reclassification of the Bayswater–Mt Piper 500kV and Wollar–Mt Piper 500kV lines in NSW1 (Notice 144199/144200), which was invoked and then cancelled within an hour on 4 June due to lightning activity. No constraint sets were invoked, and the cancellation is confirmed, so there is no residual binding constraint on the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector from that event. No active Queensland-specific network or generation notices are in force this morning.