Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 4 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $78.57/MWh with demand at 6,009 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and the trajectory through today is straightforward: demand is climbing rapidly from the overnight trough and the price response is already well established. The pattern through today's data is textbook winter morning — demand bottomed near 4,600–4,700 MW during the mid-afternoon lull (around 03:00–03:30 AEST), then accelerated sharply through the pre-dawn period, with prices tracking demand almost step for step. The morning peak hit 8,063 MW at around 17:40 AEST with spot touching $95.05/MWh, before demand eased through the midday solar window to a session low near 4,600 MW and prices collapsed to single digits and brief negatives. The evening ramp is now firmly underway, with demand up roughly 1,400 MW from the afternoon floor in under three hours, and spot has responded by lifting from sub-$11/MWh at 02:25 AEST to current levels above $78/MWh.

The price sensitivity to demand is pronounced at current load levels. Below roughly 5,000 MW, prices were consistently clearing in the $8–$22/MWh range. Once demand crosses the 6,000 MW threshold — where Victoria sits right now — the generation stack tightens and prices lock into the $65–$95/MWh band. Brown coal is providing 4,359 MW of baseload, wind 1,585 MW, and battery storage is discharging 206 MW, consistent with scheduled peak-period dispatch. Gas OCGT and CCGT are at zero, indicating the current price level is being set by the upper end of coal and wind offers rather than gas peakers, though that could shift as demand continues rising. Carbon intensity is 0.8586 tCO2/MWh — the highest level recorded across today's data — reflecting the declining renewable share as evening demand outpaces wind output, with renewables at 29.62% versus a midday high above 51%.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are concentrated around $78–$79/MWh, consistent with current actuals, while the 07:30 AEST interval attracts forecasts in the $70–$94/MWh range with meaningful dispersion — reflecting uncertainty about whether demand continues climbing toward the 7,000–8,000 MW range typical of winter weekday evenings or moderates. Today being Friday, the demand peak is likely to be modestly lower than a mid-week equivalent, but the temperature at 9.6°C with a heating demand index of 8.4 supports continued strong residential load. Tonight's demand ceiling and the point at which gas peakers are required to set price will determine whether the market clears in the $80–$100/MWh range or pushes higher.

Traders should note there are no active VIC1 network constraints influencing interconnector flows today — the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty 220 kV reclassification events have resolved — so interstate flows via the VIC–NSW and Heywood interconnectors remain unconstrained at system normal limits. Any demand surprise on the upside through the 08:00–10:00 AEST window will have a clean price transmission path and no contingency-related dispatch constraints buffering the spot response.