Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 3 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $36.66/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, having surged from negative territory through most of the overnight period — prices were consistently at or below -$0.10/MWh from roughly midnight through to 03:25 AEST before climbing sharply through the morning peak to a session high of $64.31/MWh at 17:45 AEST, then easing back. Total demand sits at 5,811 MW, well off the morning peak of approximately 7,760 MW recorded around 18:05 AEST. The 24-hour price profile has been distinctly bimodal: a prolonged overnight trough of near-zero or negative prices driven by supply surplus, bookended by a sustained morning peak band of $50–65/MWh from roughly 16:30–17:45 AEST and a re-emerging evening ramp now underway.
The generation mix at the latest trading interval (06:00 UTC / 16:00 AEST) shows wind leading at 3,481 MW, brown coal at 3,111 MW, hydro at 49 MW, and battery contributing a nominal 0.2 MW. Gas CCGT, gas OCGT, and solar are all at zero output — consistent with winter conditions eliminating solar and gas sitting out of merit. Renewables are contributing 53.15% of the dispatch mix, a figure that has tracked broadly between 47% and 58% across the past 24 hours, dipping to its low around the morning peak when brown coal was running at full tilt against elevated demand. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.5716 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of around 0.52 tCO2/MWh but meaningfully below the morning peak readings of 0.67–0.67 tCO2/MWh recorded during the 06:00–07:00 AEST window when wind output was softer relative to demand.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are converging tightly around $33/MWh, a notable step down from the earlier predispatch run estimates of $50–60/MWh made earlier in the day before wind generation proved stronger than anticipated. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at approximately $35.53/MWh across multiple runs. Beyond that, the load window data points to prices in the $10–22/MWh range through the 09:30–11:30 AEST (23:30–01:30 UTC) window as overnight surplus conditions reassert, before a pre-dawn ramp back toward the $32–35/MWh range from approximately 14:30–15:00 AEST (04:30–05:00 UTC). Today's weather profile — 95% cloud cover, 10°C, wind potential of 7.7 — supports continued strong wind output and sustained heating demand, meaning the evening ramp dynamic is likely to repeat tonight.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant VIC1 item is the reclassification and subsequent cancellation of the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity (Market Notices 144197 and 144198). AEMO reclassified the double-circuit event as credible at 19:54