Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 3 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $87.22/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,145 MW — consistent with the morning ramp profile seen across today's trading. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices oscillated predominantly between $76.89/MWh and $87.24/MWh, with two brief spikes to $96.26–$96.48/MWh during the 06:10–06:15 AEST window and a short excursion to $103.51/MWh at 21:05 AEST. The underlying price floor of ~$76.89/MWh dominated the afternoon and early evening off-peak periods, placing the current level at the upper end of today's typical range. Demand troughed around 944–953 MW during the mid-afternoon before climbing steadily back through the evening peak, reaching 1,288 MW at approximately 18:00 AEST.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is generating 1,126.71 MW and wind is contributing 66.38 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at 0 MW. Renewable penetration stands at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO₂/MWh — a figure that has held consistently across every recorded interval throughout today. With cloud cover at 100% and temperatures at 11°C, heating demand is driving the load profile; wind potential is modest at 8.2 (out of 10) and solar is contributing nothing in this winter overcast. Conditions are broadly stable, and with no thermal plant dispatched, the grid is operating well within hydro capacity headroom.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) show a split outlook: the 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $80.20/MWh across the most recent model runs, while 07:30 and 08:00 AEST intervals attract forecasts of $87.22–$87.24/MWh. This pattern — oscillating between $80.20/MWh and $87.24/MWh — extends throughout the forward curve into the early hours of Friday 5 June, with no forecasts approaching the market cap. The early-morning forecasts (from around 12:30 AEST onward) pointing to $87.22–$87.24/MWh for the overnight window suggest the market is pricing moderate hydro dispatch commitments rather than any supply stress.
No active market notices relate directly to Tasmania. The most proximate interconnector-relevant notice covers the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty 220 kV lines in VIC1 (Notices 144197/144198), which were reclassified as a credible contingency event due to lightning at 19:54 AEST and subsequently cancelled at 20:59 AEST — the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector was not named in any invoked constraint sets, so there is no indication of binding transmission limitations on Tasmanian export flows at this time. Traders holding TAS1 exposure should note the predispatch price corridor of $80.20–$87.24/MWh appears well-anchored, with no identified catalysts for a significant price breakout in the near term absent an unplanned hydro or interconnector event.