Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 3 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at -$2/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,589 MW. Prices have been negative or near zero for the bulk of the overnight period, consistent with the pattern seen across the prior 24 hours — the market moved into negative territory shortly after midnight AEST and has held there through the early morning. The notable exception was a sustained elevated period between roughly 17:30 and 21:30 AEST, where prices climbed into the $50–$158/MWh range as evening demand peaked above 2,100 MW, before collapsing back to negative territory as demand fell away. The 24-hour average price across the history provided is firmly low-single digits, with the overnight negative run pulling the average down substantially from the morning spike.

Wind is the dominant fuel source at 1,675 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 82.69 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.11 MW. Battery output sits at 0.29 MW. Solar generation is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Total metered generation across these fuels is approximately 1,758 MW against 1,589 MW demand, with the surplus consistent with the negative price environment. Renewable penetration sits at 95.29%, and carbon intensity is 0.0231 tCO2/MWh — near the lower end of the range observed over the past 24 hours, which has mostly tracked between 0.020 and 0.025 tCO2/MWh. The spike to 0.0822 tCO2/MWh at 21:55 AEST corresponded with the evening peak and elevated gas dispatch during that period, before dropping sharply once wind reasserted and demand declined.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining negative or near zero through the next few intervals (07:00–07:30 AEST forecast at -$2/MWh), before a modest lift toward $4–$7/MWh in the 07:30–08:30 AEST window and a steeper ramp to $17–$20/MWh by 17:00–18:30 AEST as the morning demand build gathers pace. The weather outlook supports continued strong wind output today — average wind potential of 19.3 and 60% cloud cover are forecast, with temperatures ranging 11–14°C, which will sustain modest heating demand. The combination of solid wind generation and low overnight demand is expected to keep prices suppressed through at least mid-morning before thermal dispatch is required to support the morning ramp.

One active market notice is directly relevant to SA: notice 144179 remains in force, reclassifying the Para–Templers West and Magill–Torrens Island A 275 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to severe weather conditions, effective from 10:00 AEST on 1 June. No constraint sets were invoked under this notice, so there is no direct flow restriction on the Heywood or Murraylink interconnectors at present. However, traders should note that a separate notice (144186) flagged Heywood SA-to-Vic test limit testing at 600 MW as part of Project EnergyConnect Stage 1 capacity release work — this remains active and could intermittently constrain export capacity. There are no SA-specific directions or non-conformance events currently active.