NEM Overview: Wednesday 3 June 2026

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 53.6% as of 06:25 AEST, with a grid stress score of 62.9 and carbon intensity score of 56.2 — reflecting a market that is adequately supplied but not without pressure points. The sharpest regional divergence is between SA and Tasmania: SA is clearing at -$1/MWh with 95.4% renewable penetration (1,714 MW of wind against demand of just 1,563 MW) and near-zero gas dispatch, while Tasmania leads on price at $87.22/MWh with 856 MW of hydro and 96 MW of wind serving 1,128 MW of demand. The Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) is currently flowing zero, leaving Tasmania to balance internally. Queensland is the priciest mainland region at $78.52/MWh, with 4,630 MW of black coal and 356 MW of gas OCGT carrying the bulk of 6,806 MW in demand — renewable penetration there is just 15.0% at 0.5742 tCO2/MWh, the highest carbon intensity on the NEM.

VIC–NSW is the dominant interconnector flow of the morning, with 816 MW moving north from Victoria to NSW at its binding export limit. Victoria is generating 3,481 MW of wind alongside 3,111 MW of brown coal, clearing at a soft $36.66/MWh. That export flow is suppressing Victorian prices while supporting NSW, which clears at $71.40/MWh with 4,409 MW of black coal backstopped by 2,035 MW of wind. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding at its -150 MW limit into SA, and the Heywood interconnector (V-SA) is also binding at just 20 MW into SA — both constrained, likely reflecting SA's surplus generation position driving the negative price. Western Australia is running at $131/MWh, the NEM's outlier, though it operates under the SWIS and is not directly linked to these interconnector flows.

The key active notice to watch is the ongoing reclassification of the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines in Victoria as a credible contingency event due to lightning (Market Notice 144197, issued 20:54 AEST yesterday, cancellation issued at 20:59 AEST per 144198 — though that notice remains marked active). Traders should verify current classification status before sizing VIC positions. AEMO is also mid-programme on Heywood internetwork capacity testing (I-SV_HEY_600_TEST), with the SA-to-VIC test limit temporarily raised to 600 MW from 550 MW; this constraint set remains active and will revert once testing is analysed, which has implications for SA export headroom and Heywood flow limits through the day.

Today's outlook is shaped by strong winds continuing across Victoria and SA — forecast wind potential of 18.9 and 19.3 respectively through 4 June — which will keep VIC prices soft and sustain SA surplus risk, with further negative price intervals possible during morning and afternoon peaks. Queensland faces a clear-sky day with solar potential of 25.2, which should ease midday coal dispatch and nudge renewable penetration upward during business hours before gas OCGT steps back in at the evening ramp. NSW heating demand (5.2