Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at $3.11/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a sharp recovery from an extended negative-price period that ran from approximately 21:00 AEST yesterday through to 06:00 AEST this morning, with prices bottoming at -$3.03/MWh across multiple intervals. The 24-hour price profile traces a clear pattern: a morning peak between 17:00–18:00 AEST reaching $88.04/MWh at 07:25, followed by a prolonged collapse into negative territory as daytime generation outpaced demand, and a gradual return toward positive values through the current 06:30 interval. Total demand sits at 5,487.89 MW, well below the overnight peak of around 7,374 MW recorded near 07:40 AEST.

The generation mix is led by wind at 3,382.94 MW and brown coal at 2,914.22 MW, with hydro contributing 47.56 MW and battery dispatch at 0.28 MW. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero output, and solar is not contributing at this hour. Renewables are accounting for 54.07% of generation, up from a trough of around 35–36% during the morning peak hours when demand was highest. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5603 tCO2/MWh, having eased from a high of 0.8011 tCO2/MWh around 06:25 AEST as wind output has strengthened relative to demand through the day.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging in the $22–$27/MWh range, with the most recent run at 06:01 AEST printing $21.95/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) is forecast at $25–$34/MWh across recent runs, reflecting the typical evening demand ramp as temperatures sit at 12.2°C with a heating demand index of 5.8 and 70% cloud cover suppressing any residual solar contribution. Load window data confirms near-zero to negative pricing is broadly expected to persist through the 10:00–11:30 AEST window (00:00–01:30 UTC), offering an extended low-cost period for flexible loads and battery charging before the next evening ramp.

The key active market notice for VIC1 is the Heywood interconnector constraint test (Notice 144188): AEMO is increasing the SA-to-Vic test limit from 550 MW to 600 MW today under constraint set I-SV_HEY_600_TEST, which may influence import capacity from SA and affect dispatch economics during the afternoon and evening ramp. The Eildon PS–Mt Beauty 220 kV double-circuit contingency reclassification (Notice 144191) was raised due to lightning earlier today and subsequently cancelled (Notice 144194), with no constraint sets invoked and the lines returning to non-credible contingency classification — no residual network restriction applies in VIC1 from that event. Traders should monitor the Heywood test window closely for any tightening of the SA-Vic transfer limit ahead of the 07:00–08:30 AEST price ramp.