Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 2 June 2026
The TAS1 spot price sits at $80.20/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,081 MW. Over the past 24 hours, price has traded in a narrow band between $69.90/MWh and $112.23/MWh, with the intraday pattern showing elevated settlement-period prices in the $87–$95/MWh range through the overnight and morning peak (roughly 07:00–20:00 AEST), before easing into the $74–$80/MWh band through the midday and afternoon trough as demand fell to a daily low around 870 MW. The current price is consistent with the lower end of that range as demand begins its evening climb back above 1,080 MW. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits close to $83/MWh, meaning the current dispatch price is marginally below that mean.
The generation mix is entirely renewable at this interval. Hydro accounts for 786.92 MW and wind contributes 40.52 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero. That combination delivers 100% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh — a condition that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Tasmania's grid is operating at its typical carbon profile for this season, with hydro providing firm baseload and wind providing a modest supplement. Weather conditions reinforce this picture: temperature is 8.8°C with full cloud cover, zero solar potential, and negligible wind at 2.2 km/h locally, though wind generation is clearly being sourced from higher-elevation or coastal assets within the region.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) target are tightly anchored at $80.16–$80.20/MWh across all recent forecast runs, indicating the dispatch engine sees no supply stress for the near-term evening ramp. The 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) window shows a small cluster of forecasts pointing toward $76.89–$77.01/MWh, suggesting a mild price softening into the late evening as demand rolls off its shoulder peak. Further out through the 09:00–10:00 AEST window, forecasts consolidate in the $74.57–$76.95/MWh range, pointing to a continued downward drift through the early hours before prices likely firm again into tomorrow's morning peak. No significant price spikes are flagged in predispatch for the next six hours.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1. The notices present in the dataset relate exclusively to NSW1 (Bayswater–Mt Piper and Armidale–Dumaresq lightning reclassifications, now cancelled), VIC1 (Eildon–Mt Beauty, also cancelled), SA1 (contingency and intervention events), and QLD1 (non-conformance and direction events). AEMO's Heywood constraint test notice (I-SV_HEY_600_TEST, SA–VIC) has no direct TAS1 impact, though any tightening of the Heywood transfer limit could indirectly influence the Vic–Tas interconnector flows via the T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) margin. Grid stress is scored at 59.4 — the primary driver being price stability variability across the 24-hour window rather than any supply adequacy concern — and the overall market conditions