Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $2.86/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp retreat from the morning peak that ran between $40–$75/MWh from 17:30–19:00 AEST as winter demand climbed toward a daily high of 2,091 MW. The 24-hour price profile has been highly volatile: prolonged negative pricing through the overnight and midday periods (multiple intervals at –$1 to –$4/MWh from roughly 11:00–05:30 AEST) gave way to a sustained elevated band during the evening demand ramp, before collapsing back to near-zero as demand eased to 1,519 MW. Wind is the dominant source at 1,778.53 MW, gas CCGT is contributing 81.34 MW, battery 1.82 MW, and gas OCGT a negligible 0.11 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn settlement time. Renewable penetration sits at 95.63%, with carbon intensity at 0.0214 tCO2/MWh — essentially flat relative to the prior 24 hours, which has ranged between 0.0165 and 0.0224 tCO2/MWh throughout.

Predispatch forecasts point to a gradual price lift over the next few hours. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $5.14–$7.55/MWh across the most recent runs, followed by a step up to $8.51–$14.77/MWh for the 07:30 AEST interval, and $15–$18/MWh range for 08:00 AEST as morning demand builds. Intervals from 09:30 AEST onward are forecast in the $22–$26/MWh range, consistent with the morning work-day demand ramp. Overnight intervals from around 10:30–13:00 AEST (00:30–03:00 UTC Wednesday) are forecast to return to negative or near-zero pricing, suggesting wind generation will again outpace demand during the low-load window. Today's weather outlook shows 78% cloud cover with a max of 13.7°C, minimal solar potential, and low wind potential (avg 3.6), which may soften wind output relative to current levels and underpin prices above overnight lows.

One active market notice directly relevant to SA is the Heywood interconnector test (Notice 144188, issued 14:03 AEST), under which AEMO increased the SA-to-Vic test transfer limit from 550 MW to 600 MW to conduct internetwork testing, invoking constraint set I-SV_HEY_600_TEST. This constraint remains active and affects the capacity available for export from SA to Victoria via Heywood; participants with positions dependent on that flow path should monitor for the reversion notice. A separate reclassification notice (144179) for the Para–Templers West and Magill–Torrens Island A 275 kV lines in SA due to a severe weather warning remains active with no constraint sets invoked, meaning no binding impact on dispatch at this stage, though it represents a latent N-2 exposure on the SA transmission backbone. The remaining active notices relate to NSW and VIC contingency reclassifications from lightning activity, all of which have subsequently been cancelled, and are not directly constraining SA dispatch.