Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $97.96/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,618 MW. This is well below the morning peak that ran from around 17:30 to 19:30 AEST, where prices sustained between $111–$158.92/MWh and demand climbed above 7,600 MW. The overnight trough bottomed out below $25/MWh between roughly 10:00–14:00 AEST, so today's 24-hour weighted average sits significantly above that floor but below current levels. The current price trajectory is rising steadily as the evening ramp progresses, up from $72.75/MWh at 05:00 AEST.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST has black coal carrying 4,503 MW (68% of the total 6,191 MW dispatched), wind contributing 1,008 MW (16%), battery storage dispatching 408 MW (7%), gas OCGT at 157 MW (2.5%), hydro at 115 MW (1.9%), and rooftop/utility solar at just 0.2 MW — negligible at this hour with clear skies and temperatures at 13.6°C. Renewables are contributing 24.73% of supply at this interval, consistent with the pattern seen across the afternoon and evening where the renewable share has been range-bound between 22–27% since solar generation faded around 08:00 AEST. The daytime renewable share peaked near 48% in the early hours of the morning when demand was low and wind output was stronger relative to load.

Carbon intensity sits at 0.6565 tCO2/MWh, which is broadly in line with the 0.63–0.68 tCO2/MWh band that has persisted through the peak demand period today. The overnight low of 0.44 tCO2/MWh recorded around 14:00–14:30 AEST reflected a higher renewable fraction on a lighter load. With solar output now zero and demand continuing to build into the early evening, carbon intensity is unlikely to improve materially until the overnight load trough returns. Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are clustered at $97.97/MWh, stepping up toward $111–$123.57/MWh for the 07:30 AEST interval, consistent with the pattern from the previous evening's peak. Traders should note the forecast spread remains wide, with individual pre-dispatch runs ranging from $97.97 to $123.57/MWh for the next half-hour, indicating dispatch-stack uncertainty as the evening ramp continues.

One market notice directly affecting Queensland pricing is active: AEMO notice 144189, issued at 16:07 AEST, reclassified the Armidale–Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale–Sapphire WF 8E 330kV lines in NSW as a credible contingency event due to lightning. This invoked constraint set N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2, which includes the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector on the left-hand side, meaning northward transfer capability from NSW into Queensland was constrained. Notice 144192 cancels this reclassification as of 21:09 AEST, revoking that constraint set — so the interconnector restriction is