NEM Overview: Tuesday 2 June 2026

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at 6:30 AEST, with Queensland the standout at $97.96/MWh on 6,618 MW of demand, Tasmania at $80.20/MWh, and NSW at $68.26/MWh. Victoria and SA are near-floor at $3.11/MWh and $2.86/MWh respectively — a spread of over $95/MWh between SA and Queensland that reflects both the strength of wind generation in the south and binding interconnector constraints limiting the ability to arbitrage that surplus northward. WA (SWIS) sits at $111.58/MWh as of 6:20 AEST. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is running at its export ceiling of 1,145.58 MW, the Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding at its -150 MW limit flowing into SA, and DirectConnect (N-Q-MNSP1) is binding at 49 MW into Queensland — all three binding simultaneously points to transmission being the primary constraint on price convergence today.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 50.1% per the gridIQ score. The standout is SA at 95.7% renewable, driven by 1,811.51 MW of wind against demand of only 1,519 MW — the region is exporting 229.45 MW into Victoria via Heywood. Victoria is generating 3,382.94 MW of wind alongside 2,914.22 MW of brown coal, with renewables at 54.1% and a spot price reflecting substantial oversupply. NSW wind is contributing 2,044.29 MW, pushing that region's renewable share to 37.9% despite black coal carrying 4,363.59 MW of the 8,304 MW load. Queensland has the lowest renewable penetration at 23.6%, with black coal at 4,249.59 MW, wind at 1,073.46 MW, and batteries discharging 169.12 MW — consistent with the elevated price signal there.

Three contingency reclassifications are active in NSW from lightning activity on the Bayswater–Mt Piper 500 kV and Armidale–Dumaresq/Sapphire 330 kV corridors; cancellations were issued overnight but the notices remain live. The Armidale–Sapphire reclassification earlier invoked constraint set N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2, which binds both the NSW1-QLD1 and DirectConnect interconnectors on its left-hand side — worth monitoring given Queensland's already tight price position. AEMO is also conducting Heywood capacity release testing today, temporarily raising the SA-to-Vic test limit to 600 MW from 550 MW; that constraint set (I-SV_HEY_600_TEST) is active and will revert once testing is complete.

Today's outlook is shaped by the absence of solar overnight and minimal solar recovery expected in Victoria (cloud cover at 70%, solar potential near zero through the day) and Tasmania (overcast, 100% cloud cover currently). Queensland clears to sunny conditions with a forecast max of 23.5°C and strong solar potential of 25.8 — rooftop generation will erode the midday price signal there but demand-side heating load across VIC and TAS at 5.8 and 9.2 heating degree