Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $3.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,488 MW — a sharp contrast to the evening peak that drove demand above 7,370 MW and prices into the $55–$88/MWh range during the 17:30–18:45 AEST window. The price trajectory through today's data is the defining story: demand climbed from around 5,820 MW at the start of the period, accelerated through the morning peak to a session high near 7,375 MW around 17:45 AEST, then collapsed as the midday solar window took net demand below 4,300 MW and held prices at or below -$2.29/MWh for several hours through the afternoon. The current 5,488 MW reading reflects demand rebounding from the solar-driven trough as the evening load build resumes, and the price has only just returned to positive territory — up from -$0.10/MWh at 06:00 AEST.

The sensitivity of prices to demand changes is stark across today's data. In the 4,200–4,800 MW range (approximately 03:00–05:30 AEST) prices were persistently negative, reaching as low as -$2.29/MWh, indicating supply well in excess of demand at those levels. Once demand crossed the 6,000 MW threshold around 15:30–16:00 AEST (AEST equivalent of the UTC 06:00 window), prices moved into the $40–$75/MWh range and sustained above $50/MWh as demand held above 7,000 MW. The current generation mix — wind at 3,383 MW, brown coal at 2,914 MW, hydro at 48 MW, and battery at 0.28 MW — places total local output near or slightly above current demand at 5,488 MW, consistent with the near-zero price. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero, confirming supply adequacy without peaking plant.

The forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) points to $21.95/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST window forecast at $25–$34/MWh across successive pre-dispatch runs. This aligns with the expected pattern: demand is currently rising from the overnight trough and will track toward the morning workday peak. Given today's 12.2°C temperature, a heating demand factor of 5.8, and cloud cover at 70% limiting any solar contribution, demand is likely to reach 6,500–7,000 MW again during the 08:00–10:00 AEST window. At those demand levels today's price history implies prices in the $35–$70/MWh range, consistent with the pre-dispatch signal.

One network factor to note: AEMO reclassified the Eildon PS–Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines in VIC1 as a credible contingency during the day due to lightning, before cancelling that reclassification at 21:39 UTC (07:39 AEST). No constraint sets were invoked and the lines appear to have returned to normal classification without binding market impact. The Heywood SA–Vic test limit increase from 550 MW to 600 MW (market notice 144185) could modestly affect the SA–Vic flow balance through