Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 1 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at -$0.05/MWh at 06:30 AEST, effectively at the market floor, having held negative or near-zero across most of the past seven hours. This follows a sharp morning peak where prices surged to $224.52/MWh at 18:15 AEST during the pre-dawn ramp, before collapsing as daytime oversupply conditions took hold. Demand currently sits at 5,728 MW, well below the day's peak of approximately 8,310 MW seen during the morning peak period. The 24-hour price profile tells the full story: a sustained negative-to-near-zero band from around midday through to now, bookended by two high-price windows centred on the morning peak.

The generation mix at the current interval is dominated by wind at 3,600 MW and brown coal at 3,234 MW, with hydro contributing just 0.52 MW and gas (OCGT and CCGT), battery, and solar all at zero. Wind is therefore providing the majority of current supply, with renewables at 52.68% penetration. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5773 tCO2/MWh, down sharply from the overnight high of 0.8891 tCO2/MWh recorded at 07:00 AEST — the improvement driven by the swing in wind output as the generation mix has shifted through the day. Today's weather is consistent with that pattern: 11.3°C, 80% cloud cover with no solar potential, and 23.3 km/h winds supporting the current wind contribution, though the daily average wind potential of 10.6 km/h suggests wind output may ease from current levels.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two intervals point to prices of approximately $21/MWh at 07:00 AEST and around $25–$31/MWh at 07:30 AEST, signalling that the afternoon-to-evening ramp is not yet imminent and that prices will lift only modestly from the current floor as demand edges up through the early evening. Load window forecasts confirm near-zero to slightly negative prices are expected to persist through approximately 10:30–11:30 AEST (00:30–01:30 UTC), before prices recover into the low-to-mid teens by the pre-morning ramp. The morning peak window — forecast around $15/MWh at 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) — is substantially lower than today's peak outcome, though actual outcomes will depend on wind conditions and thermal commitment.

The key active market notice for VIC1 concerns negative settlement residues on the VIC–NSW interconnector. AEMO activated constraint NRM_VIC1_NSW1 at 18:20 AEST yesterday to manage accumulated negative residues on the northbound VIC to NSW directional flow, and cancelled it at 20:00 AEST once the condition cleared. This constraint, when active, limits northbound export from Victoria and can suppress Victorian prices further — traders with VIC–NSW spread positions should note the residue accumulation risk persists under prolonged low-price conditions of the type seen today. No other VIC1-specific network constraints are currently active.