Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 1 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $79.95/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,056.73 MW — well below the morning peak of 1,354.52 MW recorded around 17:55 AEST and the intraday high of $190.21/MWh seen during the 18:15 AEST interval. Tracing the 24-hour price history, the region has transited through three distinct bands: an overnight floor clustering between $72.89–$80.20/MWh through the mid-afternoon, a sharp morning ramp into the $114–$190/MWh range between approximately 17:05 and 18:30 AEST, and a steady retreat back toward the $78–$80/MWh range through the evening as demand eased. The current price represents the low end of today's trading range and is broadly consistent with the predispatch trajectory.

The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 812.12 MW and wind 213.43 MW, for a combined 1,025.55 MW of scheduled output. Gas OCGT registers zero generation. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval since at least 07:00 AEST yesterday. Today's overcast conditions (95% cloud cover, 8.8°C) are consistent with winter demand patterns; solar potential is negligible and wind potential is low, placing the full generation burden on hydro and whatever wind resource is available.

Predispatch forecasts are tightly clustered and signal a stable near-term price trajectory. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at approximately $80.10–$80.20/MWh across all recent predispatch runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) forecast at $80.20–$81.18/MWh. The 08:00 AEST interval (22:00 UTC) shows some dispersion in early forecasts — ranging $80.20–$86.24/MWh — before settling back toward $80.20–$81.18/MWh in the most recent runs, suggesting a modest morning ramp risk but no repeat of yesterday's $190/MWh spike. Forecasts across today's overnight and early-morning periods (through to approximately 15:30 AEST) remain anchored in the $79.89–$86.24/MWh range, with no predispatch run flagging sustained elevated pricing.

No active market notices directly name Tasmania as an affected region. The most operationally relevant notice for today is the SETTLEMENTS RESIDUE notice (144181/144182) concerning negative settlement residues on the VIC–NSW interconnector, which commenced at 18:20 AEST and was subsequently cancelled at 20:00 AEST on 1 June. While TAS1 connects to the NEM via Basslink into VIC1, that VIC–NSW constraint has now ceased and no active flow-limiting constraint on T-V-MNSP1 is flagged. A reclassification of a contingency event in SA (Para–Templers West and Magill–Torrens Island 275kV lines, notice 144179) remains active due to a severe weather warning but applies to SA infrastructure and carries no direct Tasmania constraint