Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 1 June 2026

The spot price sits at -$0.05/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping a sustained negative or near-zero pricing run that has dominated SA1 since approximately 15:30 AEST yesterday. That extended sub-zero period — lasting over 15 consecutive hours — contrasts sharply with the 06:30–08:00 AEST window earlier in the session, when prices briefly touched -$14.99/MWh before recovering. The 24-hour price trend shows a clear two-phase structure: prices ranged $60–$76/MWh during the early evening yesterday before collapsing as wind output climbed overnight, with the weighted average across the full period sitting well below $20/MWh. Total demand currently sits at 1,484 MW, consistent with a cool winter morning ahead of the business-day ramp.

Wind is the dominant source at 1,703.5 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 80.7 MW, gas OCGT at 0.1 MW, and battery at 0.3 MW. Solar output is zero, as expected pre-dawn on a winter morning. Wind output materially exceeds total operational demand, which explains the persistent negative pricing — surplus generation is being exported or curtailed. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0222 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 95.47%, consistent with the overnight range of 95.0–96.5% seen across the past 24 hours. The carbon profile has been remarkably stable throughout, fluctuating within a narrow 0.0172–0.0244 tCO2/MWh band regardless of demand level, reflecting wind's dominant dispatch position across all hours.

Predispatch forecasts point to a gradual price recovery through the morning. The next two 30-minute targets show forecast RRPs of approximately $4.43/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $4.77–$5.00/MWh at 07:30 AEST, with prices expected to edge toward the $9–$11/MWh range by 08:30–09:00 AEST as the morning demand ramp absorbs wind surplus. Negative pricing is forecast to return through the 10:30–16:00 AEST window — ranging from -$1 to -$3/MWh — driven by anticipated wind strength (average wind potential of 29.6 today per weather data) with minimal solar contribution under 64% average cloud cover. Today's forecast high of 16.1°C limits heating demand to modest levels, keeping demand in the 1,400–1,600 MW range through the shoulder period.

Two SA-specific market notices remain active. AEMO reclassified the simultaneous trip of the Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275kV lines as a credible contingency event from 10:00 AEST 1 June due to a severe weather warning — this notice remains in force with no stated end time, and traders should note it elevates network risk on SA's key 275kV backbone, particularly relevant if wind output spikes and interconnector flows intensify. A direction issued to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 in SA on 31 May was cancelled at 23:15 AEST that evening; the associated intervention event is closed. The NRM_VIC1_NSW1 negative settlement residue constraint — which constrained VIC-to-NSW flows