Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 1 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST on 2 June 2026, with total demand at 6,841 MW. This is well below the intraday peaks seen during the morning ramp and midday period, where prices reached $231.73/MWh at 21:55 AEST and briefly touched $190/MWh through the 20:45–21:30 AEST window. The current price sits at a moderate level consistent with the early-evening shoulder, with demand having climbed steadily through the pre-dawn hours from an overnight trough near 3,800 MW. The 24-hour price profile has been volatile: overnight intervals cleared as low as $0.80/MWh at 13:15 AEST, while the daytime trading period sustained prices persistently above $130–$190/MWh across the bulk of the 19:15–23:55 AEST window.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,652 MW (approximately 68% of dispatch), with gas OCGT contributing 679 MW (10%), wind at 545 MW (8%), battery at 360 MW (5%), and hydro at 310 MW (5%). Solar output is negligible at 0.14 MW, consistent with the pre-dawn interval. Renewable penetration sits at 18.57% — a significant step down from the overnight peak of 52.1% recorded around 10:30 AEST when demand was low and coal cycling was at its minimum. Carbon intensity is 0.6928 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from the overnight low of 0.4162 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the displacement of overnight renewable and hydro headroom by thermal capacity as the morning demand ramp takes hold. Today's forecast daily solar potential of 16.5% average and clear skies (20% cloud cover) suggest solar will provide some midday relief to carbon intensity and prices as the day progresses.

Predispatch forecasts for the next evening peak are signalling elevated prices. The most recent forecast runs targeting the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) on 2 June are converging in the $122–$132/MWh range, down considerably from earlier pre-dispatch runs issued between 20:00–21:30 AEST that were pointing as high as $338–$498/MWh for that same period. The subsequent 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is consistently forecast at $144.55/MWh across multiple runs. Load window analysis confirms the period from 08:00 AEST onward (22:00 UTC) is rated "excellent" for demand shifting, with window prices falling to $54–$76/MWh — a saving of over $420/MWh against current conditions. The overnight trough from approximately 10:00–13:00 AEST is forecast to drop as low as $0.01–$5.91/MWh across several pre-dispatch runs, consistent with the pattern observed on the prior night.

The most directly relevant active market notice for Queensland traders is the settlements residue event on the VIC1–NSW1 directional interconnector (Notices 144181/144182), which commenced at 18:20 AEST and was cancelled at 20:00 AEST on 1 June. While this constraint does not sit on a Queensland interconn