NEM Overview: Monday 1 June 2026

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at the 06:30 AEST interval. Queensland leads at $111.11/MWh against a demand of 6,841 MW, with gas OCGT running hard at 679 MW and battery storage dispatching 360 MW alongside 4,652 MW of black coal — reflecting a cool morning (8.1°C) with near-zero solar and minimal wind. NSW sits at $61.33/MWh on 8,468 MW demand, where 1,885 MW of wind and 639 MW of hydro are supplementing 5,168 MW of black coal. Tasmania clears at $79.95/MWh, exporting 154 MW to Victoria via Basslink. Victoria and South Australia are both pinned at -$0.05/MWh: Victoria is generating 3,600 MW of wind against only 5,729 MW of demand with brown coal filling at 3,234 MW, while SA sits at 95.5% renewable penetration — 1,704 MW of wind into a 1,484 MW region — and is exporting 192 MW west to Victoria via Heywood. WA (SWIS) is at $122.84/MWh, the highest on the board.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 48.3%, driven by the strong overnight and early-morning wind conditions across Victoria, SA, and NSW. VIC's carbon intensity is 0.577 tCO2/MWh with 52.7% renewables; NSW is at 0.580 tCO2/MWh with 34.0%; SA is effectively zero-carbon at 0.022 tCO2/MWh. Queensland is the outlier at 0.693 tCO2/MWh with only 18.6% renewable penetration. The NEM-wide grid stress score of 60.8 and price stability score of 14.9 indicate elevated volatility risk — consistent with the negative prices in VIC and SA alongside simultaneously elevated prices in QLD.

Two active network notices are worth monitoring. First, AEMO invoked a negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector at 18:20 AEST last night, limiting northward flows as Victorian wind surplus was pushing market outcomes below threshold on that directional flow. The constraint was cancelled at 20:00 AEST, and the interconnector is currently flowing 1,060 MW north from Victoria to NSW at its export binding limit — watch this corridor through the morning peak as VIC wind output remains elevated and NSW demand lifts. Second, the Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275 kV lines in SA remain reclassified as credible contingency events due to a severe weather warning, active since 10:00 AEST yesterday with no end time advised. With SA already running near its Heywood export limit, any outage on those lines could tighten the region's security margin quickly.

Today's outlook: Queensland heating demand (9.9°C overnight, rising to 22.6°C) and continued low wind potential (0.1) will sustain upward price pressure in QLD through the morning peak, with gas OCGT likely to remain in dispatch. Victoria's wind forecast (avg 10.6, cloud 64%) keeps mid-merit thermal under pressure and negative or near-zero prices possible again through the day. SA wind potential averages 29.6