Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 1 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.05/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,729 MW — a sharp contrast to the day's earlier conditions. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: demand peaked at 8,312 MW around 07:35 AEST and drove prices to a session high of $224.52/MWh at 08:15 AEST, with a sustained elevated band of $113–$196/MWh across the 07:00–08:30 AEST morning peak. As demand retreated through the working day — falling to a daytime trough near 4,419 MW around 17:05 AEST — prices dropped into sustained negative territory, holding between -$0.10/MWh and -$2.99/MWh continuously from roughly 15:30 AEST through to the current interval. That six-hour-plus run of negative pricing reflects a generation surplus against the subdued winter afternoon load profile, with wind generating 3,600 MW and brown coal contributing 3,234 MW against total demand of only 5,729 MW at last read.

Demand is now climbing again from the afternoon trough as the evening ramp takes hold — the trajectory from 4,419 MW at 17:05 AEST to 5,729 MW at 06:30 AEST represents roughly 1,300 MW of demand recovery in under two hours. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are converging tightly around $21–$23/MWh across multiple pre-dispatch runs, suggesting the market expects sufficient supply to absorb the evening demand increase without material price stress. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast slightly higher at $26–$33/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to build toward a likely evening plateau in the 6,000–7,000 MW range typical of winter Tuesday evenings. There is no forecast indication of a return to the triple-digit pricing seen this morning.

One market notice is relevant to today's interconnector dynamics: AEMO activated a negative settlement residues constraint on the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector at 18:20 AEST, then cancelled it at 20:00 AEST. This constraint — triggered when sustained low or negative Victorian prices generated unacceptable residue accumulation on northward flows — effectively curtailed exports to NSW during the afternoon negative-price period. Its cancellation at 20:00 AEST restores full interconnector flexibility heading into the evening, which supports the modest price recovery implied by pre-dispatch forecasts rather than any sharper upward move. Traders holding evening exposure in Victoria should note that demand sensitivity to price is low in this temperature range (current temperature 11.3°C, heating demand index 6.7), meaning tonight's price path will be driven primarily by wind output variability and interconnector flows rather than demand-side response.