Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 31 May 2026
The spot price sits at $87.20/MWh with total demand at 1,172 MW as of 06:30 AEST — up sharply from overnight lows of $73.00/MWh recorded in the early hours, and consistent with the morning demand ramp that pushed load from a trough near 877 MW around 02:45 AEST to current levels. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear pattern: a brief spike to $161.48/MWh at 19:55 AEST yesterday was the single significant excursion, with prices otherwise cycling between $73 and $109/MWh. The price corridor has tightened considerably since the morning peak, with the last 90 minutes holding firmly at $87.18–$87.20/MWh as demand continues to build into the Monday morning peak. At 5.9°C with a heating demand index of 12.1 and 72% cloud cover, today's conditions are firmly winter-profile, and demand is tracking accordingly toward what should be a sustained morning plateau above 1,150 MW.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST comprises hydro at 1,059 MW and wind at 153 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. That puts renewable generation at 100% of local supply — 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity — a position that has held continuously across the entire 24-hour price history recorded in this dataset. Total local generation of approximately 1,212 MW slightly exceeds the 1,172 MW demand figure, indicating Tasmania is either exporting a modest surplus across Basslink to Victoria or accounting for transmission losses. Wind is contributing around 13% of the generation stack, with hydro covering the remaining 87%.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST intervals point to prices holding at $87.18–$87.20/MWh, with no step change anticipated through the morning. The load window data indicates the cheapest intervals today fall between 11:30–13:00 AEST, where forecast prices drop to $70.64–$73/MWh — classified as "excellent" by the optimiser — before rising again through the afternoon and evening peak. Flexible loads and battery operators should note that the 15:30–16:30 AEST window also offers "excellent"-rated slots in the low $70s, providing a second shift opportunity ahead of the anticipated evening ramp above $87/MWh. Today's outlook through 20:00 AEST shows no forecast intervals above $90/MWh in predispatch, suggesting a relatively stable day absent unforeseen contingencies.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania. The most relevant NEM-wide notice is the Market Intervention in SA (Notice 144170), where a direction to a participant remains active with intervention trading intervals declared from 21:50 AEST on 31 May; this has no direct pricing impact on TAS1 but may influence Heywood interconnector flows affecting Victorian pricing that in turn affects Basslink economics. The cancellation of the Quarantine PS Unit 5 direction in SA (Notice 144172, effective 23:15 AEST) removes one active supply-side constraint from the broader system. No Tasmania-specific contingency reclassifications or network limit variations are currently active.