Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 31 May 2026

The spot price sits at $62.69/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,501 MW and rising. That price reflects a clear evening ramp — the 24-hour profile shows the market ran negative or near-zero through the overnight trough (touching -$2.11/MWh around 12:25–13:55 AEST), spiked into the morning peak above $120/MWh between 18:30–19:00 AEST, moderated through the afternoon $40–55/MWh band, and is now climbing again into the early-evening shoulder. The current $62.69/MWh sits roughly in line with where the afternoon-to-evening transition has been pricing across the session.

Wind is the dominant generation source at 1,770.52 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 81.34 MW, battery dispatch at 48.91 MW, and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.11 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with the post-sunset interval. Renewable penetration sits at 95.72% and carbon intensity is 0.021 tCO2/MWh — the lowest reading across the entire 24-hour dataset, which peaked at 0.2881 tCO2/MWh during the morning demand surge when gas-fired generation was carrying a significantly larger share of the load. Wind output at 1,770 MW against total demand of 1,501 MW indicates the region is likely a net exporter across the Heywood interconnector at this interval.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) cluster tightly in the $58–$68/MWh range across the most recent runs, with the latest 06:01 AEST forecast at $61.81/MWh. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is forecast higher at $73–$83/MWh across recent runs, with the most recent predispatch at $82.81/MWh — signalling an expected price step-up as demand builds toward the evening peak and wind output may ease relative to current levels. Weather conditions support continued wind generation tonight (wind potential rated 9 currently, forecast average 28.4 tomorrow), though 71% cloud cover and a temperature of 11.7°C with a heating demand index of 6.3 points to sustained residential load through the evening.

The key market notice affecting SA is the AEMO direction issued at 21:54 AEST to a participant in the SA region (Market Notice 144170), which commenced an intervention event from the trading interval ending 21:50 AEST. A cancellation notice (144172) advises the direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 is cancelled from 23:15 AEST — meaning the intervention event is winding down but was active across a portion of this evening's trading. Intervention pricing does not apply to this event. Traders should note the intervention trading interval declarations may affect settlement calculations for affected periods. No other SA-specific network outage or transfer limit constraints are currently active from the notice set.