NEM Overview: Sunday 31 May 2026
NEM-wide spot prices at 6:25 AM AEST sit in a $60–$93/MWh range, with Queensland ($92.73/MWh, 6,568 MW demand) and Western Australia ($93.09/MWh) the dearest regions this morning. NSW is at $79/MWh on 8,515 MW of demand, Tasmania at $87.18/MWh, Victoria at $69.95/MWh, and South Australia the cheapest at $60.07/MWh. The QLD–NSW spread of ~$14/MWh is noteworthy: the Terranora DC link (N-Q-MNSP1) is binding at its 41 MW export limit, capping northbound relief from NSW and sustaining the premium. VIC–NSW1 is flowing 500 MW south-to-north and is well within its export limit of 954 MW, while V-SA is carrying 457 MW from Victoria into SA, keeping SA prices anchored at the lower end despite 1,769 MW of wind output there.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 47.1% per the current gridIQ score. SA is the standout at 95.6% renewable — wind is generating 1,769 MW against total demand of around 1,483 MW, with the surplus flowing out via Heywood. Victoria's wind fleet is producing 1,154 MW but brown coal at 4,395 MW dominates that region's mix, holding VIC renewable penetration to 20.8%. NSW wind is contributing 967 MW with black coal at 5,605 MW; renewable penetration in NSW is 25.2%. Queensland's 870 MW of wind and 558 MW of battery output supplement 4,125 MW of black coal, with OCGT at 169 MW filling the balance — renewable penetration at 26.7%. Tasmania is 100% renewable, running 955 MW hydro and 184 MW wind, though Basslink flow is currently zero.
Grid stress scores 72.6/100 — elevated but not critical. The active SA direction (Market Notice 144170) issued overnight to maintain system security remains in force as of this morning, though the parallel Quarantine PS Unit 5 direction was cancelled at 2315 hrs last night (Notice 144172). SA has seen recurring intervention events this month; this morning's direction is consistent with that pattern and traders should watch for a further cancellation notice as the morning wind ramp develops. Carbon intensity reflects the generation mix: TAS at 0 tCO₂/MWh, SA at 0.022 tCO₂/MWh, QLD at 0.638 tCO₂/MWh, NSW at 0.658 tCO₂/MWh, and VIC the highest at 0.966 tCO₂/MWh.
Today's outlook is shaped by winter demand and limited solar. It is 1 June and overnight temperatures across all regions are sitting in the 6–12°C range; heating demand is present in all regions with Victoria (10.8°C heating degree index) and Tasmania (12.1) the most acute. Solar potential today is negligible in VIC (0.2), TAS, and SA (4.6), while NSW (19.3) and QLD (19.7) will see modest midday solar contribution. Wind potential is strong in SA (28.4) and VIC (19