Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 30 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $10.50/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, well below the evening peak that ran between $40–$65/MWh from 17:10–18:45 AEST. Over the past 24 hours, prices traced a pronounced daily arc: a morning ramp from near-zero to a sustained $46–$63/MWh band between 18:00–21:15 AEST, followed by a collapse to negative territory from 12:10–03:10 AEST (bottoming at -$0.10/MWh repeatedly), before recovering through the early-morning hours. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $20s/MWh range, making the current $10.50/MWh materially below that figure.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows brown coal at 3,193 MW and wind at 2,753 MW, with hydro contributing a negligible 0.42 MW. Solar, gas (OCGT and CCGT), and batteries are all at zero output — consistent with pre-dawn conditions and a mild winter Sunday. Total demand sits at 4,607 MW, which is low for a weekday-equivalent morning, reflecting subdued Sunday activity and mild temperatures (9.4°C, heating demand index 8.6). Wind is contributing approximately 46% of total generation, with brown coal covering the remainder. Renewables are contributing 46.3% of the dispatch mix according to the latest carbon data, putting carbon intensity at 0.6552 tCO2/MWh — a marked improvement on the 0.81–0.83 tCO2/MWh range recorded during the higher-demand evening hours when wind output was proportionally lower relative to thermal dispatch.

Pre-dispatch forecasts are flat at $10.50/MWh through to 08:00 AEST, with load window modelling pointing to near-zero and negative prices from 11:00 AEST through approximately 15:30 AEST — the deepest forecasts clustering around -$25/MWh at 13:00–14:00 AEST, driven by anticipated wind generation continuing at current levels against low Sunday daytime demand. The 17:30–18:00 AEST window is where forecasts show the first material uplift, with $19.18/MWh appearing in the 06:30 AEST half-hour window. Today's weather outlook supports elevated wind output (avg wind potential 3.9 today, rising to 15.5 on 1 June), a max of 14.4°C, and moderate solar potential of 8.1 — enough to further suppress midday prices but insufficient to drive significant evening solar contribution at this time of year.

One VIC1-relevant market notice remains active: AEMO issued a reclassification of the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event at 18:22 AEST due to lightning (Notice 144167), with a cancellation notice (144168) issued at 19:24 AEST confirming the threat had passed and the lines reverted to non-credible status. No constraint sets remain active on those circuits and no interconnector flows were affected. The Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage (V-KOWE constraint set) from 25