Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 30 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh against a total demand of 5,643 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current price is a significant moderation from the morning peak earlier today, when prices surged above $100/MWh between 17:25 and 17:30 AEST (07:25–07:30 UTC), and sits well above the deep overnight trough where prices were negative for an extended stretch from roughly 23:15 AEST through to 06:10 AEST (09:15 UTC–16:10 UTC), bottoming at -$2.90/MWh. The 24-hour price arc is a classic winter weekday shape: extended negative or near-zero pricing overnight, a sharp morning ramp beginning around 05:30 AEST, a sustained daytime plateau in the $72–$90/MWh band, then a gradual softening into the afternoon.

The current generation mix is anchored by black coal at 3,901 MW (approximately 69% of supply), wind at 821 MW (15%), batteries at 289 MW (5%), gas OCGT at 173 MW (3%), hydro at 136 MW (2%), and solar contributing a negligible 0.4 MW given the pre-dawn dispatch time. Renewable penetration sits at 23.43% at this interval — a marked decline from the overnight high of around 53% achieved between 09:15 and 09:30 AEST (23:15–23:30 UTC), when coal output stepped back and wind carried a greater share of the reduced overnight load. Today's weather outlook reinforces a modest renewable contribution during daylight hours: cloud cover is just 1%, maximum temperature is forecast at 20.6°C, and wind potential is rated low at 3.1 average, suggesting solar will contribute through the morning and midday but wind generation may ease from current levels.

Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6663 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of approximately 0.41 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:25 AEST (23:25 UTC). The pattern through today tracks the inverse of renewable penetration: intensity climbed steadily through the business day as coal-fired output ramped to meet higher demand, peaking above 0.71 tCO2/MWh between 00:30 and 02:00 AEST (14:30–16:00 UTC) before easing slightly with evening demand softening. Sustainability managers should note that the low-intensity window has passed for today — the best procurement opportunity was the overnight period where renewable share exceeded 50%.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging in the $75–$83/MWh range across recent runs, with the most recent estimates (from the 06:00–06:32 AEST forecast cycle) pointing to approximately $75.59–$78.43/MWh — a modest downward revision compared with earlier runs that had the interval priced above $90/MWh. Load shift windows confirm overnight prices dropping back into negative territory from approximately 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) onward, with the deepest forecast negatives flagged for the 13:00–15:30 AEST window (-$22 to -$25/MWh in some runs). On market notices, the