Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 30 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh with total demand at 5,643 MW as of 06:30 AEST Sunday 31 May. That demand level is firmly in the post-morning-peak descent — down from the overnight trough of around 3,450 MW at 11:35 AEST and well below the day's high of 7,084 MW reached at approximately 17:45 AEST on Saturday. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is textbook: as demand fell from ~5,800 MW through the overnight hours, prices collapsed from the low $90s/MWh to zero and then negative (reaching -$2.90/MWh at the 11:55 AEST trough), before recovering sharply as demand climbed through the morning ramp. The morning peak drove sustained pricing in the $77–$104/MWh band between 16:30 and 17:45 AEST, with brief spikes to $103.99/MWh coinciding with demand above 6,900 MW, illustrating a clear price step-change above that threshold.

Today's demand trajectory, being a Sunday with a cool maximum of 20.6°C and minimal cooling load, points to a shallower and earlier peak than a weekday. Current heating demand sits at 5.2 heating degree-days with cloud cover near zero, meaning solar output will build through the morning but remains marginal in winter — the generation mix confirms this, with solar contributing only 0.39 MW at the current interval. Demand is forecast to climb through the morning ramp, with the day peak likely falling in the 06:30–08:00 AEST window (13:00–14:30 UTC equivalent), tracking toward 6,500–6,800 MW based on the weather profile and Sunday load shape. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST interval are converging around $75–$83/MWh across the most recent pre-dispatch runs, consistent with that demand band.

The overnight and early-morning price structure signals an extended low-price window ahead. Load window data shows forecast prices at or below zero from approximately 10:00–16:00 AEST (00:00–06:00 UTC) as overnight demand drops back toward the 3,500 MW range, with the deepest negative prices — as low as -$25/MWh — forecast around the 13:00–14:30 AEST period. This pattern mirrors what played out last night and reflects the balance between baseload black coal (3,902 MW currently) and wind (821 MW) continuing to generate into low-demand conditions. Battery storage at 289 MW is actively arbitraging this spread. Demand-side flexibility operators should note the window from approximately 10:30 AEST onward as the primary low-cost consumption opportunity before prices firm again on the evening ramp toward 17:00–19:00 AEST, where the $66–$83/MWh band is the current pre-dispatch consensus.