Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 29 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $90.94/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 988 MW — well below the overnight peak of around 1,280 MW recorded during the evening ramp. The 24-hour price range has been wide: a low of $57.98/MWh to a brief spike of $184.15/MWh, with the sustained overnight band clustering between $97–$107/MWh before softening into the $82–$91/MWh range through the afternoon and early evening. The current price represents a meaningful easing from that overnight corridor, consistent with the Saturday demand trough now deepening as the morning progresses.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind: hydro is contributing 774 MW and wind 177 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — a position maintained consistently across every recorded interval in the data set. Today's weather outlook supports that profile: cloud cover clears significantly, with solar potential lifting to an average of 8.8 and wind potential moderate at 1.2, and a temperature range of 7–16°C pointing to a modest heating demand profile with no cooling requirement. Wind resource is light at present (6.9 km/h, wind potential 0.5), so today's hydro dispatch is carrying the bulk of the regional load.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near $97.04/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, then stepping up toward the $103–$113/MWh range for the 07:30 AEST interval — consistent with a morning demand ramp on a winter Saturday. The load window data is more constructive: the overnight and early morning periods (10:30 AEST onwards) are flagged as good-quality low-price windows, with prices forecast in the $75–$82/MWh range through the 11:30–13:30 AEST window. Flexible load operators with off-peak shift capability have a clear optimisation window in that mid-morning to early afternoon band.
No active market notices relate directly to Tasmania. The notices in the feed cover a QLD non-credible contingency event on the Woolooga–Teebar Creek 275kV line (now resolved and returned to service), a VIC inter-regional transfer notice for the Heywood M1 transformer (outage completed, returned to service at 09:20 AEST), and an AEMO Marketnet firewall maintenance window scheduled for today (30 May, 09:00–17:00 AEST) affecting Lan-2-Lan VPN connectivity via the NSW datacentre. Participants using NSW-terminating IPSEC connections to AEMO's Marketnet services should ensure failover to the QLD datacentre endpoint is configured and tested ahead of that window.