Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 29 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $18.86/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp contrast to the elevated pricing seen during the evening peak period where prices climbed as high as $264.73/MWh around 08:25 AEST last night. The 24-hour price trend tells a clear story: prices tracked above $100/MWh through the 07:30–09:00 AEST window, eased into the $60–80/MWh range through the morning, then progressively collapsed through the afternoon and evening as demand fell away — settling into the $9–$20/MWh band from around 02:30 AEST onwards. Demand currently sits at 1,323.71 MW, well off the overnight peak of approximately 1,890 MW reached around 05:45 AEST.

Wind is the dominant source right now at 1,352.52 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 41.34 MW and a negligible OCGT trace of 0.11 MW. Batteries are running a minor discharge of 1.49 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 97.03% and carbon intensity is 0.0146 tCO2/MWh — the lowest level recorded in today's dataset, down from 0.2834 tCO2/MWh at the overnight peak when gas was carrying a heavier share of load. The weather outlook for today shows a mild 13–15°C range with average wind potential of 12.6 and 38% cloud cover, supporting continued strong wind generation through the day.

Predispatch forecasts for the next half-hours point to prices in the $23–$35/MWh range for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window as demand begins its morning rebuild. The load window data flags negative to near-zero spot prices from approximately 08:00–11:30 AEST (midnight to 03:30 UTC), consistent with wind supply exceeding minimum system load during the early-morning trough — a pattern that is already setting up based on current generation levels. Flexible loads and batteries with available capacity should be watching the 08:30–11:30 AEST window closely for sub-floor pricing opportunities, with forecasts showing prices as low as -$11.02/MWh in some intervals.

The one active market notice relevant to SA's interconnector position is the completed Heywood M1 500/275kV transformer outage (notice 144160), which was returned to service at 09:20 AEST Friday — constraint set V-HYTX_M12 has been revoked, restoring full Heywood transfer capability. An older SA-specific non-conformance (notice 144147) relates to LGAPBS1 deviating -10 MW briefly on 27 May and carries no ongoing operational impact. Traders should also note the AEMO Marketnet Firewall maintenance scheduled for today, 30 May, from 09:30–17:00 AEST (notice 144149), which may cause connectivity disruptions of up to four hours for Lan-2-Lan VPN participants using the NSW datacenter termination point — ensure failover to the QLD endpoint is active before the window opens.