Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 29 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $92.56/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,733 MW — a Saturday morning profile consistent with residential load ramping toward the weekend peak. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear daily cycle: prices ran above $100/MWh through the morning peak (07:00–09:00 AEST), compressed to a $66–$92/MWh band through the middle of the day, then settled into a $72–$82/MWh range through the afternoon and early evening before recovering toward current levels. The overnight trough reached as low as $0.01/MWh around 12:40 AEST (overnight), with a brief negative print of -$2.01/MWh at 15:10 AEST. The current price represents a slight lift from the $72–$82/MWh band that persisted for most of the afternoon, consistent with demand beginning to build from its overnight low.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,253 MW (73.6% of the 5,797 MW metered total), followed by wind at 966 MW (16.7%), batteries discharging at 294 MW (5.1%), gas OCGT at 147 MW (2.5%), and hydro at 137 MW (2.4%). Solar is effectively offline at 0.1 MW given the pre-dawn interval. Renewable penetration stands at 24.09% as reported, reflecting wind and hydro contributions with solar yet to contribute — the carbon history shows renewables reached above 43% during the overnight low-demand period when coal dispatch was lighter, contrasting with the current daytime trajectory. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6622 tCO2/MWh, up substantially from the overnight low of 0.4882 tCO2/MWh recorded around 11:30 AEST (overnight), as demand has risen and coal output has stepped up to meet load. Today's clear conditions (7% cloud cover, 15.1°C) and a forecast maximum of 20.2°C point to a moderate solar output window through midday that should provide some downward pressure on carbon intensity and midday prices.

Pre-dispatch forecasts are consistent and firm: the 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $103.97–$103.99/MWh across all recent runs, pointing to a clear morning peak price step-up from the current $92.56/MWh as demand builds. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $72.75–$76.63/MWh across available runs, indicating AEMO's pre-dispatch sees the morning peak resolving quickly — likely as solar begins contributing and demand plateaus on a Saturday. Load window data confirms overnight intervals from 09:00–10:30 AEST (local) will see prices collapse into negative territory (as low as -$35/MWh in some runs for the 13:30 UTC window), presenting significant off-peak opportunities for flexible and battery loads. The grid stress score of 62.5 warrants monitoring given the morning ramp, though no reserve notices are currently active for QLD.

Two active market notices are directly relevant to Queensland. AEMO Market Notice 144166 confirms the Woolooga–Teebar Creek 8850 275kV line and Teebar Creek No.2 275kV bus were returned to service at 21