NEM Overview: Friday 29 May 2026

Queensland leads NEM pricing at $92.56/MWh with Tasmania close behind at $90.94/MWh, while Victoria sits at just $10.72/MWh — a spread of over $80/MWh between the highest and lowest regions. NSW clears at $38.51/MWh and SA at $18.86/MWh. The VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is flowing 930 MW north into NSW and is binding at its export limit, which is compressing Victorian prices and supporting NSW. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is also binding at its limit of 144 MW, flowing from Tasmania into Victoria, contributing to Tasmania's elevated price. The NSW1–QLD1 interconnector flows 49 MW south into NSW, offering limited relief to Queensland's tighter supply position. Total NEM-wide demand sits at approximately 19,888 MW across the five regions.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 42.2% against a grid stress score of 62.5, indicating moderate system tightness. SA is the standout at 97% renewable penetration — wind is generating 1,353 MW against a total SA demand of just 1,324 MW, with 43 MW of net export flowing to Victoria via Murraylink. Victoria's 2,027 MW of wind output keeps that region well supplied despite 3,847 MW of brown coal also on the system. In NSW, wind is generating 1,425 MW and is the second largest fuel source behind 4,431 MW of black coal, with the region's renewable share at 27.8%. Queensland's mix is 4,253 MW black coal, 966 MW wind, 294 MW battery discharge, and 147 MW gas OCGT, with renewables at 24.1% — the lowest in the NEM. Tasmania runs on 774 MW hydro and 178 MW wind, delivering a zero carbon intensity for the interval.

The most operationally significant active notice is the non-credible contingency event on the Woolooga–Teebar Creek 275 kV line in Queensland, which tripped earlier this morning. AEMO has confirmed both the line and the Teebar Creek No.2 bus are back in service as of 21:35 hrs and has determined re-classification as a credible contingency event is not warranted. Queensland also carries an active non-conformance on MPP_1 from a brief 16:05–16:10 interval yesterday, which is minor. Separately, AEMO's Marketnet Firewall maintenance at Norwest is scheduled today from 09:00–17:00 AEST — Lan-2-Lan VPN participants connecting via the NSW datacentre termination point face a potential outage of up to four hours and should ensure failover to the Queensland endpoint is configured ahead of the window.

Today's outlook is shaped by QLD and TAS prices remaining elevated through the morning, with binding interconnector constraints likely to persist until demand and generation conditions shift. Queensland's clear skies and strong solar potential (avg 25.6 for today) will see solar generation ramp from mid-morning, which should provide price relief through the middle of the day. NSW clearing conditions are also favourable — cloud cover drops sharply today with a solar potential of 17.3 — supporting midday price softening. Victoria's wind potential is low today (avg 1.3), so the current heavy reliance on brown coal is expected to continue through daylight hours, keeping that region's carbon intensity elevated