Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 29 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $90.94/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 988 MW — a significant comedown from the overnight peak of 1,283 MW reached around 08:35 AEST and the rolling $97–$107/MWh price band that accompanied it. The demand trajectory through the data tells a clear story: prices held firmly in the $97–$107/MWh range while demand sat above 1,100 MW through the early morning and business hours, then softened progressively toward the $87.10/MWh floor as demand fell through the 900–950 MW range during the mid-afternoon trough. The current reading of 988 MW is on the recovery leg of that trough, and prices are edging back up accordingly — from a low of around $82–$84/MWh seen during the 900 MW demand floor to the current $90.94/MWh as load climbs back through the 980–1,000 MW range.

The price-demand relationship in Tasmania today shows a clear threshold effect. Below roughly 950 MW, prices settle at the $87.10/MWh floor level. Between 950–1,100 MW, prices step up into the $90–$103/MWh band. Above 1,100 MW demand, dispatch consistently required pricing in the $103–$108/MWh range, with isolated spikes to $115–$184/MWh at 07:50 AEST and 08:25 AEST when demand was pushing 1,260–1,280 MW — likely reflecting interconnector constraint events rather than pure demand pressure, as those spikes resolved quickly. With demand now at 988 MW and rising through the early evening, the next 30–60 minutes are the critical watch point: a sustained move above 1,050 MW pulls prices back into the $103/MWh band.

Today's forecast price data points to $97.04/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, consistent with the market expecting demand recovery into the 1,100–1,200 MW range as the Saturday evening heating load builds on an 8.6°C current temperature with 9.4 heating degree demand. Weather for today shows a clearing pattern — a max of 16°C and average cloud cover dropping to 13% — which limits solar contribution given the winter profile but does not meaningfully suppress heating demand. The evening demand rebuild toward 1,100–1,200 MW, typical for winter Saturday nights in Tasmania, points to prices re-anchoring in the $97–$105/MWh range through the 19:00–23:00 AEST window.

Overnight and into the early hours of Sunday 31 May, load windows show forecast prices stepping down progressively to $75–$80/MWh between 11:30 AEST tonight and 03:30 AEST Sunday, reflecting the expected low-demand overnight trough. No TAS1-specific market notices are active; the notices on file relate to QLD and NSW events with no direct Tasmania implications. The generation mix at 952 MW of hydro and wind output (774 MW hydro, 178 MW wind, zero gas OCGT) is meeting current demand, and with the OCGT sitting at zero, any demand surge above current dispatch capacity will test the interconnector and hydro dispatch response that drove those brief price spikes earlier in the session.