Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 28 May 2026
The spot price sits at $97.52/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,143.82 MW and rising as the morning progresses. Tracking back across the past 24 hours, prices have been notably volatile — spending sustained periods at the $103–$117/MWh band through the evening and overnight, touching $153.44/MWh at the 21:15 AEST peak and $151.13/MWh around 10:10 AEST, before easing back toward the high-$80s to low-$100s range through the afternoon and early evening. The current $97.52/MWh print sits comfortably below that 24-hour average, which is tracking close to $107–$110/MWh across the full window.
The generation mix is almost entirely hydro: 1,158.11 MW from hydro with a negligible 5.33 MW from wind and zero output from gas OCGT. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh, with that zero-intensity position sustained continuously for roughly the past 20 hours according to the carbon history. Earlier in the overnight period there were brief intervals of gas dispatch, pushing intensity to around 0.025 tCO2/MWh, but those have cleared entirely. With overcast conditions today (100% cloud cover, temperature at 11.2°C), solar potential remains negligible, and wind potential is virtually zero — meaning hydro is carrying the full load with no material contribution from other sources forecast through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a mild upward step from the current $97.52/MWh, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour settling around $103.22/MWh and the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at $106.59/MWh. The 08:00 AEST window shows some uncertainty with individual forecast runs ranging from $103–$114/MWh. Looking further ahead into the local morning, forecasts cluster in the $103–$113/MWh band through 09:00–10:30 AEST, with occasional runs printing $113.22/MWh. No pre-dispatch forecasts indicate a return to the sharp spikes seen overnight, though the spread across runs for the 07:30–08:30 AEST window warrants attention from participants with exposure in that period.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania. The notices in the feed relate to non-conformance events and contingency reclassifications in NSW1, QLD1, SA1, and VIC — none of which carry a direct TAS1 regional impact. The most operationally relevant pending item for market participants is the AEMO Marketnet Firewall maintenance scheduled for tomorrow, 30 May, 09:00–17:00 AEST, which may affect LAN-to-LAN VPN connectivity for participants accessing AEMO systems via the NSW datacentre termination point. Participants using that connection path should verify failover configuration to the QLD datacentre prior to that window.