Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 28 May 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $107.97/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,431 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices tracked firmly in the $120–$133/MWh range through the evening peak before easing through the overnight trough — touching negative territory between -$25.01/MWh and -$2.50/MWh across several intervals from 14:25–14:50 AEST as generation surplus pushed prices below zero. The morning ramp has since lifted prices back above $100/MWh, and the current read sits below the broad 24-hour average of approximately $103–$108/MWh, indicating conditions are broadly stable relative to the overnight-to-morning transition.
The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,864 MW, with wind contributing 1,195 MW, gas OCGT at 375 MW, battery at 205 MW, hydro at 116 MW, and solar near negligible at 0.1 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Total renewable penetration sits at 22.44%, up from lows of around 16% during the earlier evening peak but well below the overnight wind-supported highs of 30–38% seen between 10:30 AEST and 15:00 AEST. Carbon intensity is 0.6697 tCO2/MWh, having eased from a high of 0.7141 tCO2/MWh at the start of the overnight window as wind output increased, though it has drifted back up from the overnight low of 0.5250 tCO2/MWh as wind contribution moderates and coal carries the morning demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours are converging tightly around $104–$108/MWh, a material step down from earlier forecast runs that were projecting $116–$134/MWh for those same periods. This downward revision through the day suggests the market is pricing in adequate supply headroom through the morning. Today's weather outlook is relevant context: Brisbane sits at 15.9°C with 100% cloud cover and minimal solar potential, meaning rooftop and utility solar contribution will be suppressed through the morning. Wind potential is rated low at 3/10 today versus a stronger 13.5/10 average forecast for tomorrow, so wind's share of the mix is expected to remain moderate. Traders should watch whether demand firms through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window — the prior day's equivalent period saw demand peak near 7,650 MW with prices consistently in the $120–$138/MWh range, and any repeat of that load profile could test the current predispatch trajectory.
On market notices, the most directly relevant QLD1 item is the reclassification and subsequent cancellation of a credible contingency event on the Mudgeeraba–Terranora No.757 and No.758 110 kV lines due to lightning activity. The reclassification was issued at 06:29 AEST on 28 May and cancelled at 09:34 AEST the same day with no constraint sets invoked, so there is no active flow restriction on the QLD–NSW interconnector boundary from that event. No active reserve notices or directions apply to QLD1 currently. The upcoming Marketnet firewall