Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 28 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $110.50/MWh with demand at 5,603 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a marked easing from the overnight peak of 7,351 MW reached around 18:55 AEST Thursday, when prices were consistently clearing in the $155–$184/MWh range. The demand-price relationship today illustrates classic winter morning behaviour: as demand climbed through Thursday evening's heating peak, prices tracked upward in near-lockstep, with the $179.17/MWh market floor price appearing repeatedly between 21:30 and 23:15 AEST. Demand has since followed a textbook overnight trough, bottoming near 4,540 MW around 03:40 AEST at prices as low as $80.50/MWh, before the morning ramp commenced. Current demand at 5,603 MW is still in the lower portion of today's expected range, and prices are responding proportionally — sitting at the $110.50/MWh floor level.

The morning ramp is now underway and the demand trajectory is the critical variable for today's price outlook. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST half-hour period (21:00 UTC) are converging around $127/MWh across recent pre-dispatch runs, with the 21:30 UTC (07:30 AEST) interval showing a wider range of $129–$179/MWh across successive forecasts — indicating uncertainty in how aggressively demand builds into the breakfast peak. At 11.4°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 6.6, residential and commercial space heating loads are the primary demand driver this morning. Solar generation is zero at this hour and wind is contributing 577 MW against a brown coal baseload of 4,357 MW and gas OCGT output of 542 MW. The generation mix is not positioned to provide price relief as demand builds; renewables are at 10.8% of the mix.

The afternoon demand trough is where the significant pricing opportunity sits. Load window forecasts are pricing the 09:00–11:30 AEST period (23:00–01:30 UTC) in the $58–$90/MWh range, with multiple intervals forecast below $65/MWh — a substantial discount to the current price and well below the evening peak exposure. The pattern from the price history is consistent: demand in the 4,600–5,200 MW band attracts prices in the $90–$120/MWh range, while demand crossing 6,500 MW pushes prices to $160/MWh and above. Given today's forecast maximum temperature of 15.1°C and sustained cloud cover, afternoon demand trough depth may be shallower than warmer days, but the evening ramp toward a second heating peak from around 17:00 AEST is the key risk window for prices returning to the $140–$180/MWh range that characterised Thursday evening.

One network notice is relevant to Victorian traders: the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage (constraint set V-KOWE) remains active, imposing limits on interconnector flows involving VIC1–NSW1. This constrains Victoria's ability to import from New South Wales during demand peaks and reduces the market's capacity to arbitrage away price spikes via interconnection. Combined with the Murraylink dynamic rating constraint updates (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN / SVML_