Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 28 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $97.52/MWh with demand at 1,143.82 MW at 06:30 AEST, and both are rising. The current trajectory mirrors the classic winter evening ramp — demand has climbed from an overnight trough near 960 MW (around 03:30–04:30 AEST) and is now accelerating into the morning peak. The price-demand relationship across today's data is clear: when demand pushed above 1,250 MW in the early hours of this morning (around 07:30–09:15 AEST), prices held in the $103–$124/MWh band with several spikes to $150+/MWh — most notably $153.44/MWh at 21:15 AEST and $152.06/MWh at 21:35 AEST. Below approximately 1,000 MW, prices consistently compressed to the $97.04–$103.02/MWh floor, confirming a relatively sharp demand-price threshold in this region.

The intraday pattern shows a pronounced mid-afternoon trough, with demand dropping to a low of 959.92 MW at 01:55 AEST and prices touching the $97.04/MWh floor across a sustained two-hour window. From roughly 04:00 AEST demand has been climbing steadily, and at the current rate of increase — approximately 170 MW gained over the past three hours — Tasmania is tracking toward its morning peak near 1,250–1,270 MW, consistent with this morning's observed ceiling. That demand band is where price volatility intensifies, with interval prices jumping erratically between the $103/MWh base and $130–$153/MWh on individual dispatch intervals, suggesting tight supply headroom when load exceeds 1,200 MW.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00–11:00 AEST window are anchored at $103.22/MWh for the next half-hour interval, stepping up to $106.59/MWh at 08:00 AEST and ranging $103–$116/MWh through to 10:30 AEST. This indicates the pre-dispatch model expects demand to remain elevated but not to breach the higher-volatility threshold sustained in overnight trading. Generation is currently 1,158.11 MW hydro and 5.33 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero — there is no thermal headroom being called on at present. If demand overshoots the $103/MWh forecast band, the first pressure point will be the 1,200–1,250 MW zone where today's price history shows the sharpest upside risk. Today's weather (11.2°C, 100% cloud cover, heating demand index at 6.8) supports sustained elevated demand through the morning, so the evening peak — typically above 1,200 MW in winter conditions — remains the primary price risk window for the afternoon and early evening sessions.