Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 27 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $97.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,134 MW and climbing — up from a daytime trough of around 966 MW in the mid-afternoon. That $97.99/MWh reading is well below the overnight peak, which hit $311.03/MWh at 08:20 AEST and sustained elevated pricing in the $130–$193/MWh band across the 08:25–10:00 AEST window, before settling sharply into the $87.14–$87.18/MWh floor that held from roughly 04:00 AEST through to 06:10 AEST. The 24-hour volume-weighted average across the price history sits in the $110–$115/MWh range, meaning the current price is modestly below the daily mean but tracking upward as the evening demand ramp begins.
The generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,170.85 MW, with wind contributing 14.25 MW and gas OCGT at zero output. Renewable penetration is 100% at the current interval, with carbon intensity recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh. This has been the case for almost the entire 24-hour period; a brief dip to 96.2–96.4% renewable penetration and 0.023–0.029 tCO2/MWh occurred between roughly 17:30 and 21:30 AEST, consistent with a small non-hydro contribution during the morning peak, before reverting to 100% renewable and zero intensity for the remainder of the operating day. Current ambient conditions show 12.4°C with 73% cloud cover and minimal wind (4.6 km/h), producing negligible solar and near-zero wind contribution — hydro is carrying the full load.
Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) point to $93.70/MWh on the most recent run, with the forecast series showing a gradual convergence from higher early estimates (up to $127/MWh) down to the low-to-mid $90s as the interval approaches — consistent with demand rising but generation remaining well-supplied. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) is more elevated, with forecasts clustering in the $100–$151/MWh range across multiple pre-dispatch runs, suggesting price uplift risk as the evening demand peak builds toward 1,300+ MW. Forecasts further out through the overnight period (10:00–16:00 AEST Thursday) show prices in the $97–$155/MWh band, with several half-hours flagged in the $130–$152/MWh range — indicating the market is pricing in tighter conditions as winter heating demand sustains elevated overnight load.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 today. The notices on record cover contingency reclassifications in NSW1 (Bayswater–Mt Piper 500kV lines, now cancelled) and QLD1 (Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110kV lines, also cancelled), along with a constraints update enabling the Murraylink dynamic rating forecast model (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN / SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) from 20:00 AEST — this applies to the V