Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 27 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $132.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,327 MW — well below the evening peak of 7,693 MW reached around 18:00 AEST. Today's price is materially softer than the sustained run of $215–$231/MWh seen during the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (UTC+10 equivalent), when evening demand was climbing. Over the past 24 hours, prices tracked a classic winter weekday profile: a mid-evening peak band above $200/MWh, a trough through the overnight period in the $114–$152/MWh range, a secondary morning peak near $190/MWh around 17:00–18:30 AEST, then a gradual descent to current levels as morning solar suppresses residual demand.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,951.6 MW (roughly 78% of dispatched output), with gas OCGT contributing 712.7 MW (11%), wind at 684.1 MW (11%), hydro at 119.3 MW (2%), and battery at 121.3 MW (2%). Solar is effectively negligible at 0.13 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 14.04% — noticeably below the overnight high of approximately 24% reached around 13:00–14:00 AEST when wind output was stronger relative to thermal dispatch. Carbon intensity is 0.7316 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to the overnight trough around 0.65 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the current fuel mix with coal carrying the bulk of the load.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two half-hours point to a modest uptick: the 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $136.44/MWh (most recent run) and the 07:30 AEST interval at $134.11/MWh, suggesting prices hold broadly in the $130–$145/MWh band through the early morning shoulder. Earlier pre-dispatch runs had the 07:00 AEST interval priced as high as $177–$221/MWh before successive runs tracked lower as demand came in softer than initially anticipated — a pattern consistent with mild winter morning conditions at 16.6°C with 91% cloud cover dampening heating load. The load window data confirms the afternoon and overnight periods today are expected to remain in the $77–$122/MWh range, with the cheapest windows centred on the 13:30–15:30 AEST period at sub-$85/MWh.

The one QLD-relevant market notice still active from this period is the RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY for the Mudgeeraba–Terranora No.757 and No.758 110 kV lines (Market Notice 144153), which were temporarily reclassified as a credible contingency event due to lightning earlier this morning. That reclassification was subsequently cancelled at 20:39 UTC (06:39 AEST) per Notice 144155, with no constraint sets invoked throughout — so there is no residual binding impact on QLD–NSW interconnector flows. No active reserve notices apply to Queensland today, and the most recent MT PASA (19 May) identified no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM.