NEM Overview: Wednesday 27 May 2026

Spot prices are running in a tight $133–$145/MWh band across the NEM mainland as of 06:30 AEST, with SA leading at $145.12/MWh on demand of 1,444 MW, NSW at $138.94/MWh (7,745 MW), VIC at $136.38/MWh (5,807 MW), and QLD at the low end of the mainland range at $132.83/MWh (6,327 MW). Tasmania sits well clear at $97.99/MWh, reflecting its hydro-dominated dispatch (1,171 MW hydro, 14 MW wind, 100% renewable penetration). The $47/MWh spread between Tasmania and SA is the standout divergence this morning, though Basslink flow is currently zero — the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector is carrying nothing despite that price gap, and VIC1-NSW1 is flowing 118 MW south into Victoria. QLD is exporting 301 MW to NSW on the NSW1-QLD1 link, which is binding at its import limit.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 27.2% per the gridIQ score, with the generation mix reflecting a winter evening profile — solar is negligible across all regions at this hour. NSW is the standout for wind output at 1,267 MW, contributing to a 31.6% renewable share in that region and a carbon intensity of 0.593 tCO2/MWh. VIC is the opposite end of the spectrum: 4,731 MW of brown coal dominates, with wind at only 131 MW, giving a carbon intensity of 1.131 tCO2/MWh and a 2.5% renewable share — the highest intensity on the NEM by a significant margin. SA's gas fleet is running hard with 458 MW OCGT and 496 MW CCGT against only 92 MW wind, pushing renewable share to just 9.1% and carbon intensity to 0.516 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress reads at 78.3/100, elevated but not critical.

Two market notices from overnight are cleared but worth noting for transmission context. The Bayswater–Mt Piper 500kV double circuit (NSW1) was reclassified as a credible contingency due to lightning activity earlier this morning and subsequently cancelled at 21:49 UTC — those lines are back to non-credible status and no constraint sets were invoked. Similarly, the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110kV double circuit on the QLD/NSW border went through the same reclassify-and-cancel cycle due to lightning, also with no constraint sets invoked. Both events are resolved. Separately, a non-conformance was declared against TALWA1 in NSW1 at -60 MW for a five-minute interval, and LGAPBS1 in SA1 at -10 MW — both routine short-duration events with no ongoing impact.

Today's outlook is shaped by persistent cloud cover: 95% in NSW, 96% in VIC, 91% in QLD this morning, with NSW forecast at 98% average cloud for the day and SA at 93% — solar output will remain minimal across the NEM. Wind potential is low across VIC and SA today, with NSW seeing some uplift through the day (forecast average wind potential of 5.9). Prices are likely to hold in the current range through the morning